If you follow me on Twitter, chances are you’re familiar with this bet. We cashed it last night… in the 1st period. Today sets up as a perfect spot to go back to it.
Kucherov is a monster at home. He missed the beginning of the season, but in 12 home games this year, he cleared this number 8 times. That’s a 67% hit rate in his home games.
After starting blazing hot, he cooled off a bit, which inspired Tampa Bay to re-shuffle their lineup and form a ‘Big 3’ of sorts up at the top. Since the change, the Lightning’s 1st line of Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point have combined for a whopping 21 points in just 4 games.
Tonight, they get a mouthwatering matchup vs. Montreal, a team allowing more than 4 goals per game in their last 5 on the road. On an expected goals basis, they should be allowing even more, which is scary for Canadiens fans. They’re also allowing 19.3 high-danger chances per game in this recent stretch — a mind-boggling number.
I try to use my column to highlight sneaky value plays. Not today. This feels like an obvious choice, and I’m ok with that, because we need a winner. Let’s cash it and get back on track. I risked a full unit on this bet to win 1.4 @ +140 odds available at time of writing.
If you’re comfortable double dipping, I also like Kucherov’s linemate, Steven Stamkos, to record 2+ points (+160 at FanDuel) as he’s done in 3 of 4 games since the lineup change.