@FastMoneyLabs’ Best Bet - 6/28

Pittsburgh Pirates (29-44) vs. Washington Nationals (28-48)

Could we target a lamer matchup? Definitely not. It is Patrick Corbin Day though, and we’ve detected a betting edge. Why not highlight it for FlashPicks?

The veteran lefty is struggling, and that’s an understatement. He’s pitching to a career-worst 6.60 ERA, and his advanced stats aren’t much different. His expected ERA calculated by MLB Statcast is 6.47, for example — which is bottom 2% in MLB and in-line with his actual ERA (indicating he hasn’t been a victim of bad luck; he’s just bad).

The Nationals are just 3-12 when Patrick Corbin starts. And you’re telling me he’s the betting favorite tonight? Is Vegas smoking crack?

Pittsburgh Moneyline feels like a great play with Jose Quintana toeing the rubber tonight. They’re just 29-44 overall but 7-7 when he starts. My problem with making that bet is it means we’d have to watch a full 9 innings of Pirates/Nationals baseball. Who wants to do that?

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Rather than gamble on the moneyline, I prefer to isolate the Pirates Team Total vs. Corbin in the First 5 Innings (F5). Teams are scoring 4.0 F5 runs on average when he starts with a median value of 3. Betting his opponents to score 3+ F5 runs is 9-6 this season and 6-1 in his last 7 starts.

Pittsburgh is also on a sneaky Team Total run, covering in 8 of their last 10. And you’re telling me we can bet this prop at plus money tonight? Vegas is either definitely smoking crack at this point, or I’m missing something. Probably the latter, but we can’t rule out the former. This bet feels like it should be priced closer to a coin flip.

If your book doesn’t offer F5 Team Totals, the Full Game Team Total works, too. It just means you need to watch 3+ hours of Nationals/Pirates baseball, and who wants to do that?

The Pick: Pirates over 2.5 Runs (F5) @ +120

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