@FastMoneyLabs’ Best NHL Bets - 3/22

In summary: both prior matchups flew over their game total including a 10-goal showing last week. Neither side made significant enough trades at the deadline to suggest a different outcome tonight.

The data shows Vegas is due for positive scoring regression, and I see WPG as an ideal opponent to get it against — especially after VGK was shutout last night.

The data also shows WPG’s recent trend of flying over their game totals is legitimate and not a fluke. The Over is 18-10-2 in WPG home games this year and 10-2-2 at home when the line is >=6. I feel all of this supports a solid floor on scoring tonight. Said differently, I’d be surprised if this finishes as a low scoring, 3-0 game as VGK’s matchup last night did. My expectation is that we should get at least a push, but I‘ll be surprised and disappointed if we don’t cash this ticket. After all, it is a Tuesday, right?!

Of the two teams, I prefer to target WPG for a player scoring prop based on their rest advantage tonight.

Of the available options, it was tempting to back Nicolaj Ehlers (WPG) to record a point (-138) as he’s done in 8 of 9 games since returning to Winnipeg’s lineup in March. However, for the price, I prefer a plus money prop tonight that hit in both WGP/VGK matchups this year.

Extending to past years, I noticed this player prop I’m about to highlight cashed in 7 of his last 9 games vs. VGK. In 10 career matchups, he’s averaging 1.8 points per game vs. VGK (highest vs. any opponent, minimum 3 game sample).