@FastMoneyLabs' MLB Best Bets: Astros @ Angels - 5/9

Tue 09 May 2023 19.38

FastMoneyLabs has given us a couple sneaky plays for this Tuesday night MLB matchup. Keep scrolling down for both of them!

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I sprinkled 0.5 units on each play!

Yordan Alvarez to Walk (+100) via DraftKings

Shohei Ohtani’s an undisputed magician, but he’s issuing 2.8 free passes per 6 innings pitched (12th most among starters), and Alvarez walks more than any Astro in the last 2 seasons!

He’s arguably due to draw one soon too. He’s a player who typically walks 14% of the time but only has two in his last 25 plate appearances (also zero in his last 10).

Even still, this prop’s a healthy 11-10 in Alvarez’ last 21 starts; however, it’s just 1-5 in his last 6. Smells like he’s due, right? Also in 12 career PA vs. Ohtani, Alvarez walked twice.

The expected umpire assignment also strongly supports this pick, assuming it’ll be John Libka. His 9.0% lifetime walk rate is 4th highest out of any active MLB ump with 100+ games experience. In 2 career dances with Libka, Ohtani walked 5 batters in just 6.2 IP!

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Both Pitchers Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+145) via Bet365

Ideally we’ll thread the needle with Alvarez, but just in case, I’m sprinkling 0.5U on this SGP! In a perfect world we’ll cash both.

Valdez issued 13 walks in 4 starts vs. LAA last year (3.25 per game), and like Ohtani — he’s struggled with umpire John Libka’s tight strike zone in the past. In 2 career starts with Libka behind the plate, Valdez issued 7 walks (3.5 per game)!

I also like how Ohtani went Under last game recording 13 K’s vs. just 1 BB. He’s had massive strikeout success in the past vs. Houston; however, two of his worst career starts came with Libka calling balls and strikes. Trends are meant to be broken, but Libka’s a tough nut to crack.