$FML Best Bet - 7/25

To be fair to the home team, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ scoring outlook also looks solid tonight. Giants pitching has been a major source of the team’s issues, especially in the Bullpen where they have the 8th worst Bullpen ERA in MLB. The bullpen issue will almost certainly be problematic again tonight with Jakob Junis listed as San Francisco’s starter. Tonight marks Junis’ return from a 6-week injury rehab, and he’s not expected to pitch deep tonight. If he fails to go 5+ innings, I like Arizona’s chances to capitalize on their divisional foe’s bullpen woes.

Chase Field in Arizona isn’t known as a hitter-friendly park. Even still, 7 of the last 12 Giants/D’backs matchups played there featured 9+ total runs. My analysis for tonight’s matchup suggests a similar outcome is likely (but not guaranteed, obviously).

For what it’s worth, there are signs Sharp bettors disagree with my analysis and prefer the Under. I’m not sure exactly why, but when the line drifted up to 9.5 (from opening line of 9), it was quickly bought back down to 9 within minutes. It’s never comfortable going against Sharp action, but in this particular case — given my assessment of Gilbert’s ‘true’ talent (or lack thereof) and the GIants’ bullpen situation — I feel it’s the right play, and I’m sticking with my gut on that. I backed the Game Total to go over 9 at -110 odds available time of writing (Barstool Sportsbook).

The Pick: Giants/D’Backs Over 9 (-110)