$FML’s NHL Shots Parlay - 11/1

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Leg 1: Nick Paul (TBL) over 1.5 Shots (-189) vs. Ottawa

Basic name. Sneaky good hockey player. The Bolts acquired Paul’s services via trade with the Ottawa Senators last year. Tonight, he’ll face his former team for the 1st time.

It’s funny — normally we’d call this a “revenge” spot, but in Paul’s case, it might be the polar opposite. An “anti-revenge” spot of sorts. If I were him, I’d be thrilled with the situation. The trade launched him directly into a Stanley Cup run last year. He performed well and earned a 7-year extension in the offseason. Now he’s a staple in Tampa’s Top-6 forward group, playing with better teammates and putting up numbers.

For all those reasons, I’m not buying the revenge narrative tonight. Instead — I’m betting on the simple fact his role has increased relative to past years, which is a source of betting value for him. Sportsbooks haven’t been listing Nick Paul’s shot prop this year, and I’m not sure why they decided to start today. Those questions might be better left unasked, because I feel it’s mispriced. I agree with the line being 1.5 but expected odds closer to -220 or lower.

That’s because betting Nick Paul to record 2+ shots is 8-1 (89%) this season and 12-4 (75%) since last season when he plays 15+ minutes with Tampa (excluding playoffs). This year, he’s averaging 18:21 minutes of ice time, up from 16:18 with Tampa last year, and minutes correlate with shots.

Leg 2: Vincent Trochek (NYR) over 2.5 Shots (-184) vs. Philadelphia

Riding the trend in a plus matchup here. Trochek’s cleared this in 10 straight games, which coincides with joining the Rangers in the offseason. He’s averaging 20:42 minutes of ice time this year with New York, up from 17:52 last year with Carolina.

As mentioned in Nick Paul’s section — ice time correlates with shots. That’s simple math. And sportsbooks’ pricing models are sleeping on this concept for Trochek. Also supporting this pick is the fact he recorded 3+ shots in 3 of 4 matchups vs. Philly last year despite less ice time. Now in an increased role, look for Vinny to run it back at Madison Square Garden tonight.

Leg 3: Cole Caufield (MTL) over 2.5 Shots (-166) vs. Minnesota

Betting Montreal’s young sniper to record 3+ shots on target is now 24-6 (80%) in his last 30 road games. This compares to just 17-13 (57%) in his last 30 at home. Tonight, he’s back on the road visiting XCel Energy Center. 

I’ve been investigating statkeeper bias across arenas and stumbled across a study that finds XCel Energy Center statkeepers are more liberal with recording shots on goal stats. Take that for whatever it’s worth to you — here’s a link to the paper.

Minnesota’s allowing 32 shots per 60 minutes at home this season, up from 29.05 on the road. It’s a small sample but still very interesting. I’m playing Cole’s trend more than anything, but if statkeeper bias wants to tilt in our favor tonight for a change, it would be glorious.

THE $FML Slip

I got +278 odds for the 3-leg combo at Caesars Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half my normal bet size). Parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy, so please bet responsibly if tailing and best of luck!

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