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Capper Penguin's NBA Player Prop Pick: Thunder @ Mavericks - 5/13

MVP Snub?

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Capper Penguin's Prop Research

They finally raised this line up a little bit, but I don't care, he's been an absolute horse this series. He's now had 47, 53, and 47 PRA vs the Mavericks this series and I, again, don't see much changing scheme wise for the Mavericks defense. They've now won 2 in a row and game 4 will be in Dallas. Shai has been killing the single coverage with fairly efficient games, but there is room to be even more efficient. He's seeing a ton of court time averaging 40 minutes per game and should continue to cover here.

  • Here is my write up from last game that directly applies here

He dropped 53 PRA last game and the Mavericks won so why would they switch up their defense at home? Shai also hit in game 1 with 47 PRA when the Thunder won by 20. It's not like he got lucky from the floor either averaging under 50% from the field. So without any big changing factors, Shai is inevitable even in Dallas. He's crushing in every category already this series and there's no real matchup or scheme that should be thrown at him in game 3 to change that. Rocking with him again.

  • Write up for game 1

Not following our playoff trend here, but I don't think it's a bad thing to be on MVP 2 and MVP 3 who could've each, arguably, won MVP 1 today instead of Jokic. Shai, unlike Luka, did well in every category in game 1 with 29, 9, and 9 PRA, but the Mavs didn't really have an answer for him since his teammates kept the defenders honest. He actually didn't even see the last 3.5 minutes of the game due to blowout and could've pushed 50+ PRA easy if he did. This game should be more competitive and, one can wish, we may see a back and forth game between Luka and Shai.

The real way to stop Shai is by the double team, but it'll be very tough to do that given how well OKC has been playing as a whole. Give me Shai to do his thing again in game 2. Buying the extra point here on FD, but also like it at 42.5!

🐧 Penguin's Pick

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Shai Goat Alexander over 44.5 Pts+Reb+Ast @ -120
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NBA | Fri 05/31, 12:30 AM