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NFL Regular Season MVP Odds


The NFL’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is unique. Unlike the other main American sports leagues, the NFL’s MVP is dominated by a single position - the quarterback. This is for good reason too – no single position in basketball, baseball or hockey holds as much weight in their team’s success as the QB does.

In this article, we’ll go over the books’ favorites to win MVP, give you some good value dark horses to consider, and go over how to bet on the the NFL MVP Award.

So without further ado - Let's get into it!

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NFL MVP: The Heavy Favorites

Josh Allen +700

+125 as of 10/21/22

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen may not be the single best quarterback in the league but the rest of his team and last year’s playoff run have helped him become the odds-on favorite to win this year’s NFL MVP Award. Allen is an all-around solid quarterback with an electric run game that heads the Bills’ offense. If the Bills can finish the regular season with the best record(which Las Vegas seems to expect @ +450), the fifth year QB is very likely to reap the benefits and win his first MVP.

Patrick Mahomes +800

+500 as of 10/21/22

Coming off a slightly disappointing season compared to his standards, 2018 NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes has his work cut out for him this upcoming season. The main reason there’s some doubt on Mahomes’ MVP chances is due to the major moves made by the Kansas City Chiefs during the offseason - most notably the trading of 3x first-team All-Pro Tyreek Hill. 25% of Mahomes 2021 touchdowns and 26% of his passing yards were thrown to Tyreek Hill. Patty Mahomes has already proved himself in this league but in order to win his second MVP Award, the new face of the league must figure out how to run his offense without Tyreek Hill at his disposal.

Tom Brady +800

+4000 as of 10/21/22

For what feels like the 100th year in a row, Tom Brady is one of the main favorites to win this year’s NFL MVP Award. While we could go on and on and his past accomplishments and awards (including 3 MVP awards & 7 rings), I’ll keep it concise. The 44 year old Brady led the league with 5,316 passing yds this past season. The old chap hasn’t slowed down yet and with the rest of the NFC south looking weak this year, Tom Brady is expected to fill up the stat sheet.

Aaron Rodgers +1000

+5000 as of 10/21/22

It’s a little surprising to see the Green Bay QB reach +1000 for MVP odds but here we are. Aaron Rodgers is coming off of another mammoth season, winning MVP for the second year in a row and fourth time in his career. Most of the doubt regarding his MVP chances stems from the offseason departure of elite wide receiver Davante Adams. Rodgers’ stats could take a hit without the star WR but Rodgers has proven that he doesn’t need too much help to get his numbers.

* Interesting narrative piece: Aaron Rodgers is looking to win 3 consecutive MVP awards this season. The only NFL player to ever win 3 straight? QB Brett Favre of the Green Bay Packers (1995-97). Does this help Rodgers’ chances or hurt it? Only time (and the NFL media) will tell.
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NFL MVP: Dark Horses

Russell Wilson +1400

+10000 as of 10/21/22

The MVP narrative for Wilson is already there. As stated in our Super Bowl Winner Odds article, “The Broncos have fallen from the glory of winning the 2015 Super Bowl with Peyton Manning at QB. After Manning retired following that Super Bowl victory, the Broncos have seen 6 straight years of no playoff appearances and 5 straight years of under .500 records with quarterbacks coming and going seemingly every season.” If Russell Wilson can lead the Broncos to 11+ wins, he will likely join the heavy MVP favorites for the season.

Lamar Jackson +2000

+900 as of 10/21/22

Looks like the books are disrespecting 2019 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson at +2000 odds. While the Baltimore Ravens underwhelmed with an 8-9 record last season, they dealt with multiple key piece injuries including Jackson. Lamar and the rest of the Ravens seem to be in great shape for the upcoming season and if they can put up a good regular season record while Jackson gets his passing and rushing yards, one can expect Lamar’s MVP chances to rise.

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How to Bet on the NFL MVP

The NFL MVP is awarded based on regular season performance. The winner is decided right after the end of the regular season and is announced the week before the Super Bowl.

You’ll be able to bet on the NFL MVP Award on most sportsbooks in the NFL section under “Awards” or “Season Awards.”

You can use our special promos to get the most value out of your bets!

As these are future bets, they will stay in your active bets all the way until the MVP has been announced. Certain sportsbooks allow you to “cashout” throughout the season if your pick isn’t looking great, but many of these offers give you insurance on your bet, making cashing out unnecessary.


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