John Bollman's Bet of the Day - 9/2

The Los Angeles Dodgers take on the San Diego Padres late tonight to begin a three-game set between these rivals. The Dodgers only have an 18-game lead in the division, so I am going to go out on a limb here and say that they will win the NL West. They also have a 6.5 game lead over the Houston Astros for the best record in MLB and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Padres however are playing desperately to be in that Wild Card spot when the season ends. They are currently 3.0 games up on the Brewers for the last Wild Card spot, so it is by no means over.

The Dodgers had to fly cross country to get back to Los Angeles yesterday while the Padres were waiting for the Dodgers in Los Angeles, so that is really the only thing that worries me here. We could see a dud from the Dodgers or see a key player get the night off. However, I don’t think that will happen against a division rival. That being said, the Dodgers have the advantage literally everywhere else. Yu Darvish has faced the Dodgers three times this season and he was hit hard in one of those starts, but it was in Los Angeles. Darvish is much worse on the road at 5-5 with a 4.44 ERA this season. Dustin May is making just his third start back from the IL and of the season with his first two being against the Marlins. He will face a much tougher lineup in the Padres tonight, but I think he will still have success.

It was Gavin Lux’s mental errors and the Dodgers bullpen that blew it in the last game, and I don’t think that will happen again. The Dodgers bullpen is ranked 3 rd since the trade deadline while the Padres aren’t too far behind them ranked 6th . The Dodgers are also 21-7 since the trade deadline including 10-1 at home. The Padres are 15-13 since the trade deadline and 8-7 on the road. However, the biggest thing for me here is the Dodgers head-to-head record against the Padres. The Dodgers are now 8-2 against the Padres this season with only three of those games coming at home. The Dodgers have also won 17 of the past 19 games between these teams. We saw the Padres take on the Dodgers right after the trade deadline when they acquired all their talent, and they proceeded to get swept with an aggregate score of 20-4. I like the Dodgers tonight.