John Bollman's Bet of the Day - 9/27

We are getting very close to the end of the season with just 8 days left, so it’s getting tough to find value and/or motivation from a lot of the teams. There aren’t many races left this season unfortunately, so there aren’t many teams that are motivated left. And the few teams that are motivated just happen to be playing each other.

The Milwaukee Brewers are playing the St. Louis Cardinals, and the Toronto Blue Jays are playing the New York Yankees. So that doesn’t leave us many options in terms of finding teams with motivation because the teams that are motivated but are playing non-playoff teams are way too heavily juiced. That is why you will start to see more heavy favorite money line parlays from me in this last week of the season, and I will be playing one here.

The first leg of the parlay is the Atlanta Braves on the money line against the Washington Nationals. Kyle Muller is getting the start for the Braves, and they are trying to keep pace with the Mets for the NL East. Muller has had one good start and one bad start this season. Paolo Espino is starting for the Nats, and he has been bouncing around as a spot starter the second half of the season. He has also been relieving games, so he won’t go deep. The Nationals bullpen has been a lot better lately ranked 10th in the league in the last 30 days, but the Braves are ranked 2nd in that same time span. The Braves are also 12-4 against the Nationals this season and they need to keep pace with the Mets to have a chance at winning the NL East, so I don’t think they squander this chance. The Nationals are also much worse against lefties in the past 30 days.

The other leg of the parlay is the New York Mets on the money line against the Miami Marlins. Carlos Carrasco is starting for the Mets, and he has pitched three quality starts in four chances against the Marlins. He was just one out away from a fourth quality start as well. Pablo Lopez was absolutely rocked by the Mets in three of his four starts against them. The Mets are 15-11 in the last 30 days while the Marlins are 8-19. The Mets are also 12-4 against the Marlins this season with 10 of those 12 wins being by multiple runs.

I like the Braves money line and Mets money line parlayed together.