College Football Picks

Penn State will host SMU in Happy Valley on Saturday in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Both teams lost their conference championship games in dramatic fashion. With both offenses being able to put up points in bunches, we could be in for an entertaining matchup.

The Mustangs have surprised many in their first ACC season, notably rallying from a 24-7 halftime deficit in the title game before losing to Clemson on a last-second field goal. While their defense has been solid, their offense truly excels, scoring 30+ points in all but three games. QB Kevin Jennings leads the team with over 3,000 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and five rushing TDs. His mobility will challenge a Penn State defense that hasn't faced many mobile QBs this season.

The Nittany Lions’ offense will pose many challenges of their own. They are 24th in the nation in points per game and 11th in total yards. QB Drew Allar is a stud and capable of putting up numbers against most defenses. He will also have the pleasure of getting the ball to TE Tyler Warren. The Mackey Award winner recorded 1,200 all purpose yards and 10 touchdowns. We just saw Cade Klubnik torch this SMU secondary, so Allar and company should be able to move the ball with relative ease on Saturday.

Most of the offense will likely come from Penn State in this one. However, it’s tough to back James Franklin in such a big spot. SMU’s offense should provide enough to get over the total.

Clemson is set to take on Texas in a CFP first-round matchup on Saturday. The Tigers squeaked into the Playoff with a last-second win in the ACC Championship. Even though they are the lowest seed in the bracket, they are more than capable of hanging with the Longhorns.

The Tigers will roll into Austin on Saturday with one of the best offenses in the country. They are in the top 20 in yards per game (13th) and points per game (17th). The offense is led by QB Cade Klubnik. The junior signal-caller has thrown for 3,300 yards, 33 touchdowns, and only five interceptions this season. We just saw him throw all over a good SMU defense in the ACC title game to the tune of 260 yards and four touchdowns. Klubnik will face a strong defense, but Dabo has had time to create a game plan to exploit the Texas secondary.

While teams like Indiana and SMU are having their poor strength of schedule ripped apart by the media, Texas has skated by with one of the easiest schedules in the SEC. An argument could be made they’ve only played one legitimately good team all year in Georgia and lost to them twice. Something looks off about the Longhorns’ offense. They have failed to score more than 20 points in three of their last four games. The one game they went over that mark was against a lifeless Kentucky team. They will need to score a lot more than 20 if they have a hope of covering this number.

It’s hard to believe that Texas will have their offense completely turned around in just two weeks. Dabo is used to the bright lights of the CFP and he will have his boys ready.

Tennessee will go head to head with Ohio State at The Shoe to cap off the first round of the Playoff. The Buckeyes will be taking the field for the first time since their debilitating loss to Michigan, which could give the Volunteers the mental edge.

Ohio State's mindset for this game is uncertain—they could be eager to bounce back from a fourth straight loss to Michigan or ready to end a disappointing season. Taking them by more than a touchdown is risky, as they've struggled in big games this season. The Buckeyes have not played their best football in big games this season. They looked flat against Penn State and Nebraska, shot themselves in the foot against Oregon, and, of course, the Michigan loss. If they come out flat in this one, the Volunteers have a defense capable of shutting anyone down.

Having a great defense is something that has not been typical in Josh Heupel’s tenure in Knoxville, but this defense is legit. They are 15th against the pass, 8th vs. the run, and 4th in scoring. Tennessee has allowed more than 20 points twice this season. They’re not too bad on the offensive side, either. QB Nico Iamaleava has over 2,500 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. RB Dylan Sampson led the SEC in both rushing yards (1,485) and touchdowns (22). They are both capable of creating separation on the scoreboard if the defense does their job.

It’s hard to get to the window and lay more than a touchdown with Ohio State after the Michigan loss. The Vols are talented enough to cover, and possibly win outright. Some Buckeye fans might welcome a Tennessee win if it means getting Ryan Day out of town.