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John Bollman's NLCS Game 1: Player Prop Picks - 10/18


Zack Wheeler Over 15.5 Outs -115

Zack Wheeler has recorded 18 outs and 19 outs in his two playoff games so far. He also pitched 7 innings against the Padres earlier this season. This line seems very low to me, he usually doesn’t get into walk trouble so he should be fine in terms of pitch count. This is also a 7-game series now so there isn’t as much urgency in Game 1 from the sides because you can’t fire all your bullets in Game 1 while keeping yourself in play for the series.

That means, even if Wheeler is getting hit, they would want him to eat as many innings as possible to save their bullpen.

Trent Grisham Over 0.5 Total Bases +100

Trent Grisham is 0 for 5 in his career against Zack Wheeler with 3 strikeouts, but this play isn’t about his matchup history. He has been one of the Padres hottest hitters this postseason and he has the platoon advantage against Wheeler. He has a hit in all but one of his postseason games so far and he is 8 for 21 this postseason.

This is great value.

Juan Soto Over 0.5 Total Bases -195

This number being at 0.5 makes it playable despite the heavy odds. Soto is tough to play on total bases because he walks so often, but I think Wheeler will go after him today. Soto has seen Wheeler the most of any player going 11 for 38 against him with 11 walks and 10 strikeouts. He has hits in five of his last six postseason games and he has a hit in three straight games.

He should have the platoon advantage for three at bats, and maybe more with Machado batting behind him.

Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases +120

Bryce Harper has been the best player for the Phillies this postseason, and he is a big reason why they have made it this far. He has played in 6 postseason games so far and he has hits in five of them. He has multiple hits in four of the six. I don’t think they will pitch around him with their ace on the mound and with it being the first game of the series.

He is just 1 for 6 with 4 strikeouts in his career against Darvish so something has to give.

Kyle Schwarber Under 1.5 Total Bases -175

So this is a bit of a tough one because when Schwarber gets a hit, it is usually an extra base hit, so I actually like the Under 0.5 better at that value. But Schwarber is 1 for 20 this postseason and 2 for 9 in his career against Darvish with a double and a home run.

I think he stays cold against the Padres ace and rested bullpen.

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