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@KeepTheJuice21 Home Run Parlay + Spread Pick - 6/22

Home Run Parlay

Vlad Guerrero Jr. / Juan Soto | +2184

Vlad Jr. is shaping up to be one of the most electric stars in the MLB. He’s a threat to go deep every night and he’s already got 17 this season. He’s also a little less streaky than most, pretty consistently he’ll hit 1 HR every 3 to 4 games. What pushes the pick over the edge is that the opposition is very liable to give up long balls. In Giolito’s last 4 starts, the White Sox have given up 7 home runs and if someone is hitting one for the Blue Jays it’s probably Vlad.

Juan Soto is having a little bit of a down season, but even still he’s managed to knock out 14 home runs. There are a few factors going for him tonight. The majority of those 14 home runs have come away from home, which makes sense playing at Nationals Park but he’ll have a good chance to hit one in this series at the hitter friendly Camden Yards. Hitting as a natural lefty he’ll also have the platoon advantage against right hander Tyler Wells. The 318’ short porch in right field is begging for a bomb from a power hitting lefty like Soto.

Cleveland Guardians (34-28) @ Minnesota Twins (38-30)

Guardians Moneyline | +135

Don’t look now, but the Guardians are a good baseball team. They haven’t lost a series since May and most recently topped the Dodgers in 2 of 3. This has put them above the White Sox in the division and only 1 game back on the Twins, so this series is important. The Twins have been a lot iffier, unable to string together more than 2 wins in a row in that same stretch since May.

Sonny Gray is an upgrade over Tristan McKenzie but not by as much as you’d think. McKenzie has had a lot more time on the mound and Gray will likely still be on a pitch count restriction since returning. It’s tough for any bullpen to get through 5 or 6 innings, which is on the table if the Guardians can get the pitch count up. With how well the Guardians have been performing recently, this should be a lot close to an even line, which presents great value.

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