@KeepTheJuice21 MLB Picks - 6/20

The Brewers have got some momentum going after their tough losing streak earlier this month. Playing the Reds is always good for team morale. But despite the last few games, I’m not convinced in the consistency of the bats. There are games that the offense explodes but there are far more where they win in a tight pitching battle.

Speaking of pitching, Corbin Burnes will take the mound at home tonight, something that the Brewers will be grateful for, but might not help the total. Mentally, there are two sides that lead to less run support for an ace.

The first is the opposing defense knows they will have to be locked in. If you’re not expecting many runs, any errors in the field that contribute to the opposing offense mean that much more. On the other end, the Brewers don’t feel the pressure to score knowing you have the ace to back you up. All in all, the Brewers would be very lucky to top 4 runs tonight, especially with how Miles Mikolas has pitched in his last few starts.

We’re starting a new format here in the home run parlay. The typical bet is going to be risking 0.1 units and with a two player parlay, the payout will rarely be under +1200. The beauty of these is to be getting even money, you don’t even have to hit 1/10 bets. And with the juiced balls getting back in the mix, we could be finding some great value.

To kick it off we’ve got two of the hottest hitters in the league. Let’s start with Trout. His HR odds are rightfully high, paying out +250. He’s hit 5 home runs in his last 5 games and since breaking his cold hitting streak he’s hit 8 homers over 11 games. He’s facing a struggling Kris Bubic at home at a hitter friendly park, he should be able to feast.

Devers has been the bright spot on the streaking Red Sox, recently hitting home runs in 4 consecutive games. Fenway is kind to lefties and Devers has taken advantage, knocking out 8 at his home park this season. Faedo has been solid on the mound for the Tigers but delivers a high hard hit rate and will be at a disadvantage throwing to a lefty as a righty – the Platoon Advantage as it’s known as. Trout will hold the same advantage against the lefty Bubic, a great combination for our first HR parlay.