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@RyanPropz Padres @ Cubs K Prop Pick - 6/14

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Ryan

San Diego Padres (38-24) @ Chicago Cubs (23-37)

Sean Manaea is enjoying his first season with the Padres after spending his first 6 years with the Athletics. Like many pitchers on the Padres staff, he is having a terrific beginning to the year. I love this spot for him to keep it rolling.

Sean has a career best 3.52 ERA, and has a solid 1.09 WHIP. He is averaging just over 1 K per inning at 1.03, and that number jumps to 1.16 K per inning on the road. He has been much stronger on the road in general this season, as he has hit the over in 5 of 6 road starts averaging 7.3 K in those games. He currently sits in the 69th percentile in K rate, 67th percentile in whiff rate, and 53rd percentile in chase rate. He has 4 pitches that can generate swings and misses as his entire arsenal has a 26.1% or better whiff rate. He attacks right handed batters with his changeup, and lefties with his slider to pick up strikeouts. 

The Cubs have been solid avoiding K some weeks, and dreadful the next. They are a bit tough to predict, but season long numbers show they are a solid target. They average the 9th most strikeouts per game in the Mlb at 8.73. They are 8th in the league in K per game at home as well. They have the 8th worst K% vs lefties over the last 30 days. I like the big lefty to pick up 6+ K vs them tonight. 

The Pick

Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts @ -117

Odds via Ceasars Sportsbook