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@RyanPropz Tuesday Night MLB Pick - 4/19

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Cincinnati Reds (2-9) @ San Diego Padres (7-5)

The Reds are off to a brutal start after getting rid of some key offensive pieces this offseason. They are 25th in runs per game and 26th in strikeouts. They have become a massive target for strikeout props, and not sure they have the lineup to correct it anytime soon. Tonight, they face Joe Musgrove who is coming off a career high in strikeouts in 2021, and off to a strong start to 2022.

Joe was at his best last season in night games at home. In home games, he had 117 K in 92.1 innings (1.27 per inning). In night games, he had 144 K in 129 innings (1.12 per inning). So far this season, the Reds have gotten crushed vs righties. They have 62 K in 199 at bats (31.1% K rate) and have batted .176 as a team. The Reds lineup will not be released for another few hours but we can assume they will feature Votto (25% vs RHP), Farmer (27.3 vs RHP), Naquin (28% vs RHP), Moustakas (45% vs RHP), Fraley (21% vs RHP), Pham (27% vs RHP), and if we are lucky, Aquino (83% vs RHP). While these are all small sample sizes, it demonstrates that the whole lineup is a target for K’s. With Musgrove in his comfort zone at home and the Reds struggles vs righties, I think Joe could be in for a big night.

Ryan's MLB Pick

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Joe Musgrove over 6.5 strikeouts @ -116
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