$FML’s Friday Night Parlay - 10/28

ICYMI: We improved to 18-3 in our last 21 FlashPicks in the -130 to +130 range…

That’s nice click bait. Now here’s the honest truth: streaks like this happen but require luck, at least to a degree. Even the most skilled handicappers will never hit 80%+ of their bets at a consistent rate for an extended period of time. It’s simply not possible without some sort of inside information. Take infamous NBA referee Tim Donaghy for example. Dude was literally fixing games that he was working and still only hit 75% of his bets, according to the FBI.

Now consider this: Bets with odds in the +130 to -130 odds range are priced to hit between 43.5% and 56.5% of the time. We’re hitting 85% of them in the last 21 picks, and we’re doing it without inside information. That’s great, but honestly would not be possible without an element of luck, which ebbs and flows.

I elected to open this column with a sobering tone, because I do not want folks to see we’re hitting 85%+ and then decide to put their mortgage on my picks. Eventually this streak will crumble, so please bet responsibly.

Now before they mute my line, let’s get to the fun stuff. THE PICKS.

• Leg 1: Jonathan Marchessault & Jack Eichel each over 2.5 Shots (+113) vs. Ducks

As mentioned last week, the Anaheim Ducks are leaking shots —especially on the road— and tonight they’re in Sin City. The Vegas Knights’ team shots line is listed at o/u 38.5 for tonight’s contest. That’s one of the steepest we’ve seen in this market all season. I feel the 38.5 number is fairly priced, which led me to prefer the player angle. And of the options, why not back Vegas’ Top-2 shooters to record 3+ shots each? They play on different lines in 5v5, which makes this a smart bet (in theory), since they won’t cannibalize each other’s shots. The exception to that is on the Power Play, but assuming they’re due for multiple Power Play Opportunities tonight (they only got one last game), then it shouldn’t be an issue. I like both players’ chances to record 3+ shots here.

• Leg 2: Jack Hughes over 3.5 Shots (-102) vs. Avalanche

For the best odds, use the “4+ Shots” option on FanDuel. Betting the #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft to record 4+ shots at Home is 4-0 this season and 8-2 in his last 10. The Avs are on the tougher end of the matchup spectrum, but they’ll be without Valeri Nichushkin tonight, who’s normally a force on Colorado’s 2nd line. This softens the matchup for Hughes, whose blistering speed and elite puckhandling make him a good candidate to record 4+ shots on any night regardless of opponent. In two career head-to-head matchups, Hughes recorded 4 shots in Denver on 12/13/19, followed by 6 shots in New Jersey on 3/8/22. Tonight they’re in Jersey, which led me to roll the dice with confidence on 4+.

• Leg 3: Jake DeBrusk over 2.5 Shots (-152) vs. Blue Jackets

He failed to cover last night, but it was partially due to an unexpected lineup featuring superstar Brad Marchand, who wasn’t supposed to return until Thanksgiving. Tonight, Marchand’s expected to rest (dude just had major hip surgery, not even sure how he played last night), which makes DeBrusk a strong play for 3+ shots again here. Boston’s not the best in Back-to-Back (B2B) situations (just 5 wins in their last 12 tries), but they still manage to pepper shots on net, averaging 34.75 per game in B2Bs since last season. DeBrusk’s a fiery, gritty player who should have plenty left in the tank to cash this ticket for us tonight in his 1st line role. In three matchups vs. Columbus last year, he recorded 4, 4 and 6 shots despite playing 15 minutes or less in 2 of the 3 games. This year he’s playing more, finishing with 18+ minutes in 6 straight games, and minutes correlate with shot opportunities.

The Slip

I got clean +601 odds to parlay these props at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e., half my normal bet size) to win 3u. I also placed straight bets on all 3 legs by risking 1 unit/each at best available odds (which may vary by book; for performance tracking, I’ll use FanDuel odds). 

For what it’s worth, as mentioned at the top, the law of averages suggests we may be due to miss some article picks soon, so please bet responsibly and best of luck!