$FML's NHL Best Bet for Tuesday Night - 3/28

Classic sandwich spot! New York’s coming off back-to-back wins vs. playoff caliber teams (Carolina & Florida) on the road. Potentially their biggest test yet looms this Thursday (at New Jersey). Sandwiched in-between? A seemingly harmless home game vs. the bottom-of-the-barrel Blue Jackets.

The Blueshirts surely want the W, but will they take CBJ lightly? Specifically… lightly enough to surrender 27+ shots? I’m willing to bet the answer is yes, and the data supports it.

Betting NYR to allow 27+ shots is…

• 8-2 (80.0%) in their last 10 vs. non-playoff teams at Madison Square Garden
• 30-13 (69.8%) after a Win this season
• 13-7 (65.0%) at Madison Square Garden after a win
• 5-2 (71.4%) at home vs. non-playoff teams after a win
• 17-7 (70.7%) in the 3rd game after two wins

Meanwhile, betting CBJ to record 27+ shots is…

• 7-3 (70%) in their last 10 on the road vs. playoff contenders
• 15-4 (78.9%) in their last 19 after a loss
• 5-1 (83.3%) in their last 6 on the road vs. playoff contenders after a loss
• 10-3 (76.9%) in their last 13 road games overall

Don’t be fooled… The Jackets still stink, but they’ve embraced the “spoiler” role! They’re playing with enhanced sense of urgency lately, especially vs. playoff teams. This mentality gives them sneaky value vs. a divisional opponent in a classic sandwich spot.

If you’re not sold yet… See these two trends:

• CBJ ranks #6 (out of 32) in shots per 60 minutes in their last 13 away games (33.2; +6.7 vs. line).
• CBJ shots per 60 minutes when trailing:
• First 50 games: 30.75 (29th)
• Last 10 games: 33.5 (17th)
• +8.9% boost… indicates they still care and won’t fold if the score flops

I’m projecting Columbus closer to 30 shots on goal tonight (+3.5 vs. this line)! Between that, the referenced trends and classic “sandwich spot”, I like our chances to cash and wagered accordingly! (to win 1 unit)

Available at Barstool Sportsbook, BetRivers and SugarHouse.

Note: If your book doesn’t offer this market, consider pivoting to the NYR goalie saves prop when it drops, if the line is right! My numbers have the expected starter (Shesterkin) making 27+ saves.