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@GriffyBets' NHL Power Play Pick - 10/17


Last year I became increasingly infatuated with power play data in the NHL. From studying which teams were allowing the most power plays to which players were most involved when skating a man up, it’s an important piece of the puzzle if you’re betting NHL props.

It makes sense. Shots on goal can come in a hurry when a team has themselves a power play, and circling a matchup with penalties galore can help you find the right player to bet on that night.

It’s not just shots, of course; it can also raise your confidence level in a player to score a goal or record a point.

For tonight’s play, we’re focusing on a very specific type of prop: power play points. My identified spot could easily become a good bet for you to just bet on his shots on goal, to score a goal, or record a point. I prefer the +215 odds we get on his involvement directly coming on a power play.

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David Perron over 0.5 power play points (+215 DK)

Through three games, the Los Angeles Kings have allowed an absurd 17 power plays, good for a 5.67/game average.

With that volume has come penalty-killing shortcomings, as the Kings have allowed five power play goals on this young season, good for a PK% of 70.6%. For context, the lowest penalty killing rate last year was 73.8%.

With our target established, we turn to who has the fortune of facing this sloppy Los Angeles team: the Detroit Red Wings.

Now, Detroit hasn’t yet scored on the power play this season on seven tries, but tonight feels like a terrific opportunity to get off the schnide.

When looking at time on ice (TOI), the most involved Detroit skaters on the power play have been Lucas Raymond, Mortiz Seider, Dylan Larkin and David Perron.

Perron tops the team in power play shots (3) and feels likely to be involved in any power play scoring that the Red Wings can pull off tonight.

While it was with a different team, when Perron first played the Kings last season, he piled up three PPP in one game. The Blues weren’t granted many power plays in the two subsequent games.

Perron was a heavy volume shooter on the power play last season for St. Louis, and the early returns suggest that role has remained in Detroit. Raymond, Seider and Larkin are all fine alternative options if you agree with the approach and want to spread your net. I’m opting to wager a half-unit on my favorite.

GriffyBets' Power Play Pick

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(.5u) David Perron over 0.5 PPP @ +215
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