@Matkafee Liverpool Vs Real Madrid - UCL Final Preview

Matt Aka @Matkafee | @matkafee

Champions League Final: Liverpool v Real Madrid

Liverpool and Real Madrid will contest the Champions League final in Paris on Saturday. These two clubs have a rich history in the competition winning it a combined nineteen times. They actually faced off in the 2018 final in Kyiv, Ukraine with Madrid winning 3-1. It completed an incredible trifecta of European titles for Zinedine Zidane’s team and is most memorable for the Liverpool keeper Loris Karius gifting Madrid two goals that night. Liverpool learned from that defeat, purchased Alisson and Fabinho that summer and went on to win the competition the following season. Real Madrid lost Cristiano Ronaldo to Juventus that summer and haven’t been back until now.

Teams' Forms

Real Madrid comfortably won La Liga this season, so looking at their recent form doesn’t give you reliable insight. A defeat to Atletico, a couple of draws with Cadiz and Betis and a thumping of relegated Levante isn’t an ideal run in. Conversely, the Premier League went down to the final day of the season because Liverpool continued to win matches. They ultimately fell just short of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City but did defeat Chelsea in the FA Cup final. We’ll see tomorrow if the contrasting intensity of each club’s build to the final will play a factor.

Teams' Health

There is important fitness news to watch in the next 24 hours. Thiago and Fabinho are certain starters in the Liverpool midfield if healthy. Both players have recently been forced off in matches but I’m seeing they trained today which is good news. Mo Salah returned from his groin injury and scored the winning goal vs Wolves on Sunday so I’m assuming he’ll be fit enough to start. The only injury concern for Madrid is David Alaba but he has trained this week and should return to the starting eleven.

Betting Leans

You don’t have to go far to find value in the betting market. In the last few seasons it's rare to find the Reds anywhere near even money, so if you believe Liverpool win in regulation, just grab that +100 moneyline. If you think Los Blancos are a team of destiny, then I recommend taking Real Madrid “To Lift the Cup” at +144 which includes extra time and penalties. I believe both teams find a way to score but I’m not laying the -164 juice. I don’t have enough conviction to pick a winner so what I’ve done is parlay BTTS and under 4.5 goals which comes to +106. We cash this bet with a 1-1, 2-2, 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline and can enjoy the match from a neutral perspective.

Matt's Pick


BTTS & UNDER 4.5 GOALS @ +106

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