Capper Penguin's UFC 280 Pick - 10/22

UFC 280: Charles Oliveira v Islam Mackhachev

The value lies with Oliveira in this fight and let me explain why.

Believe it or not Oliveira is on a longer win streak than Islam and has fought much tougher opponents. Islam hasn't fought anyone in the top 5 while Oliveira has recently choked out Justin Gaethje and Dustin Pourier, knocked out Michael Chandler, and won unanimously vs Tony Ferguson. All of whom were in the top five at the time. Oliveira was right when he said that if it wasn't for Khabib in Islam's corner, Islam should've had one or two more fights before getting the chance at a title shot.

As much as Islam Mackhachev wants to be Khabib, he's not and although he's taken care of recent fighters, he's going into this title fight with a false confidence. This is Oliveira's main advantage as he never takes anything for granted. In terms of striking Oliveira is known to fight like a dog on the inside and although this could be potentially be Islam's main advantage, he likes to fight from the outside and measure his takedowns. Oliveira is vulnerable when he's trading shots because he welcomes violence, but I'm not convinced Islam can thrive in that kind of fight. The largest risk is Islam getting on top and winning by either ground and pound or staying on top of Oliveira long enough for a decision. I just don't see it being that easy with Oliveira's strong juju and there's always the risk of Oliveira doing something dangerous from his back.

Oliveira has been the underdog in two of his last four fights and he's in a prime position to shock the bookmaker's again vs a slightly overrated Islam Mackhachev.

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