Coco is getting one of her toughest matches all tournament in Madison Keys. Madison is coming off a very tight second round victory where she played 35 games and won the last set 7-6 (she was down 5-2). Giorgi had way more chances to win than Keys did, but she couldn't win the break points. This shows me that Keys is vulnerable and may be hungover after a tough win.
Gauff on the other hand is better than Giorgi and is in great form after winning rounds 1 and 2 in straight sets and should make a deep run in this tournament. There's a reason why Gauff is a -150 favorite despite losing to Keys earlier this year, she should get the job done.