@SidekicksPicks CBB Play of the Day - 2/11

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies travel to St. Louis to take on the Billikens for a 9:00 p.m. tip. The Bonnies are 13-7, 2-3 on the road. This St. Bonaventure team returns the majority of their roster from last season, but has underperformed to this point. With projections to finish at the top of the A10, they have found themselves in the middle of the pack, tied in 6th place with a 5-4 conference record.

On the other hand, we have a red hot St. Louis team that holds a record of 17-6 overall, 11-3 at home. St. Louis is currently in 2nd place in the A10 with a conference record of 8-2.

St. Bonaventure Analysis

St. Bonaventure was a tournament team last year and had a ton of promise with high expectations this season. Unfortunately, they have not lived up to those expectations. They are currently 2-3 in their last 5 games and are 1-3 in their last 4 road games.

They started off the season winning 5 straight against some decent opponents in Boise St, Clemson, and Marquette. Since then, they have struggled to find consistency and have not fared well against conference opponents. The Bonnies have also had difficulty covering the spread this season. They are currently 6-14 ats, 1-4 ats on the road.

St. Louis Analysis

The St. Louis Billikens was a team I thought would finish 4th in the conference at the start of the season, but they have been very impressive as of late. They have strung together 6 straight victories and 6 straight at home. In comparison of strength of schedule, the Bonnies have had a slightly tougher schedule to this point, but St. Louis has a quality win over Boise St. and Dayton. Even though their schedule hasn’t been as competitive, they have been handling their competition.

In their 6 game winning streak, they have beaten their opponents by double digits in 5 of those games. St. Louis is a team that prides itself on their defense. Surprisingly, they have been one of the best offensive teams in the country. They rank 22nd in points per game (79.4) and shoot 77.5% from the charity stripe, which ranks 16th.

Betting Trends

  • Bonnies are 0-6 ats in their last 6 games following an ats win
  • Bonnies are 0-4 ats in their last 4 games as an underdog and as a road underdog
  • Bonnies are 0-6 ats in their last 6 games vs a team with a winning home record
  • Bonnies are 3-12 ats in their last 15 games
  • Billikens are 4-0 ats in their last 4 games
  • Billikens are 4-0 ats in their last 4 games following a win
  • Billikens are 6-1 ats in their last 7 games vs a team with a winning % above .600
  • Billikens are 5-1 ats in their last 6 games vs an A10 opponent
  • Billikens are 5-1 ats in their last 6 games on a Friday

Verdict

On paper, St. Bonaventure should be a much better team than they have shown this season. However, the numbers this season suggest that St. Louis is a better team in every single category. When you compare the two teams head to head, St. Louis ranks better in points per game, shooting percentage, 3 point percentage, defensive efficiency, free throw percentage, rebounding and has more depth on their bench.

The only statistic that St. Bonaventure holds over St. Louis is their ability to create turnovers and limit their own turnovers. In the last 3 games these 2 have faced, St. Louis is 2-1 and are 2-1 ats. The key factor in this game will be St. Louis’ ability to shoot 3s. They rank 57th in the country and shoot 36.3% from behind the arch. St. Bonaventure’s weakest point of their defense is their ability to guard the 3. They rank 235th in the country in defending the 3.

Play of the Day

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ST. LOUIS BILLIKENS -5 @ -110

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