@SidekicksPicks CBB Play of the Day - 2/10

The Purdue Boilermakers travel to Ann Arbor to play the Michigan Wolverines for a 9:00 p.m. tip in what will be one of the best games of today’s college basketball slate. Purdue is one of the best teams in the country this season and holds a 21-3 overall record, 4-2 on the road. Michigan has been one of the biggest disappointments this season. Projected to be one of the top teams in the nation, they have fallen to a 12-9 overall record, 7-2 at home. Purdue is currently in 1st place in the Big 10 with a 10-3 conference record. Michigan finds themselves in the middle of the pack at 7th and a record of 7-6 in conference.

Purdue is currently on a 6 game winning streak and have won 9 of their last 10 games. They have won their last 2 games on the road and are 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Purdue holds quality wins over Villanova, Iowa twice, Illinois twice, and Ohio St. Purdue has already beaten Michigan at home 82-76. Purdue ranks 4th overall in points per game (84.5), 3rd in field goal percentage (50.8%), 3rd in 3 point percentage (41.1%), and 23rd in offensive rebounding (36.6). On the defensive side, the Boilermakers rank 1st in defensive rebounding (24.9).

Despite Michigan having a disappointing season, they have been solid at home. The Wolverines have won 4 straight home games, but those wins come against a terrible Nebraska team and Southern Utah. Michigan is currently 5-5 in their last 10 games and 3-2 in their last 5 games. Michigan’s numbers are not impressive this season. They rank mid to high 100 in almost every offensive and defensive category. They are, however, a decent defensive rebounding team ranking 38th (28.2).

• Purdue is 13-11 ats this season (3-3 on the road)
• Purdue is 6-4 ats in their last 10 games
• Michigan is 8-13 ats (3-6 at home)
• Michigan is 3-7 ats in their last 10 games
• Michigan is 0-5 ats in their last 5 home games vs a team with a winning record
• Road team is 3-0-1 ats in their last 4 head to head games

On paper, Purdue is a powerhouse team that has beaten very strong opponents at home and on the road. Winning on the road in the Big 10 is extremely challenging and they seem to have found a way to do it this season. Michigan has been playing better and has been very good at home, but I think there are too many mismatches in this game for Michigan to cover. Kenpom has Purdue winning 79-74 and Oddsshark has the outcome 80-72. I feel comfortable with laying 3 points on Purdue in this one, even though the ats numbers are not that exciting.