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@GriffyBets’ Sunday WNBA Picks - 7/17

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Two 1H spread picks in the WNBA for Sunday afternoon

If you've been on this WNBA journey with me, you know how often we get burned by teams taking their foot off the gas in the fourth. The beats we've taken in the last few minutes of games has become a ridiculous tradition that I for one am ready to break.

Thus, we're looking at the first half spreads for two teams I expect to win today.

Las Vegas -1.5 FH @ -110

Vegas is the top-ranked first half team league over the past ten games, with a net-rating of +16.8. Contrast that with Connecticut's +2.2 1H NRTG, and the early edge appears to go to the Aces. What makes this an official play is that Jonquel Jones is out for Connecticut. Jones is the reigning MVP, so yeah - her absence figures to be a notable one for the Sun.

Since news of her being out, the full-game spread has jumped by more than a point. I like following the success of Las Vegas to begin these games, and without a pivotal piece to their team, Connecticut feels primed to struggle.

It’s the Aces offense that has really come alive in these first halves, averaging 49.5 points per game in the past ten games and owning the top offensive rating in the league. Jones has been named to the WNBA All-Defensive First team twice in the past three seasons. Her absence will be felt on both ends here.

Seattle -8.5 FH @ -110

Seattle and Indiana couldn't be more different when looking at the numbers.

The Storm are a legitimate title contender, 16-8 on the year and winners of three straight. Meanwhile, Indiana is nothing short of the worst team in the league with a 5-21 record and nursing an eight-game losing streak.

The net-rating disparities between these two teams is stark, if we can take a minute to highlight just how much:

  • Last ten games: +26.7 difference for Seattle
  • Last five games: +32.4
  • Looking at location data over the L10: +34.1
  • First half net-ratings: +33.4

Get the picture? The Storm should have no issues scoring in any form today against this porous Indiana defense. In two games against the Fever, Seattle has gone into the half up 19 points and up 9 points.

Enjoy the day today, let’s find us some WNBA wins to end the week!