@GriffyBets Thursday WNBA Spread Pick - 6/30

We have just one WNBA game today, a rematch from six days ago. I bet on that game last week and am going right back to the same team that secured the win.

The New York Liberty have quietly emerged as one of the WNBA’s best over the past ten games. They are 8-2 ATS and 7-3 overall, and their efficiency rankings are flying up the charts.

Over the last ten games, New York ranks first in the WNBA in net-rating. Contrast that with Atlanta’s net-rating (second-worst in the league), and these are two teams on polar opposite ends right now.

New York’s defense is stronger and their offensive performance is much better. It’s a simple play, but I’m following the trends here and betting on the team showing us more lately.

After a promising start to their year, Atlanta has dropped seven of their last eight games. Few of their losses have been that close, with their average margin of defeat in this stretch being 10.57 points.

One of those games was against New York, when the visiting Liberty came to town and won by 12.

Now at home, we get a reasonable spread of just -4.5. The lone concern here would be the long layoff for New York, this is their first game since they played this Atlanta team on June 24. I’m not overly concerned about it, but it’s worth a flag.

The key for New York will be their three-point shot; no team is shooting more threes or averaging a higher percentage of their points from long-range shots. This aligns nicely against the Dream, as Atlanta’s defense is allowing opponents to shoot the highest 3P% over the past ten and five games.

In summation, we have two teams moving in completely different directions, a recent game that saw New York win by 12, and the Liberty’s strength matching up with the Dream’s biggest weakness.

That gives me the confidence to move forward with the spread pick here. As of this writing, New York is 4.5-point favorites at -110 on most major books.