Kamaru Usman is one of best pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC and is defending his welterweight title against Leon Edwards. This is a rematch from a previous fight in 2015 in which Usman wrestled his way to a dominant decision victory. Usman wasn’t well rounded then but has added to his game and now possesses the ability to knock people out. Edwards has good standup but he got flashed by Nate Diaz in his last fight. If that fight went another round I think Nate would’ve got Leon out of there. I can see Usman winning this fight by using his wrestling again but something tells me he will choose to keep the fight standing. While that plays into Edwards’ strengths I think the champ trusts his power edge. The first round is usually spent figuring out distance and finding a rhythm and I see it going into the second for sure. After that the action will pick up and I’ve got Usman by KO sometime over the next 20 minutes.
I’m putting four units on Usman by KO/TKO but dividing it into four bets. One unit on each round prop: Two +1500, Three +1600, Four +2600 and Five +3200. Now this means I want to go 1/4 but no matter which one hits, the payout is higher than taking Usman’s KO straight around +250. If this goes any other way I’m down 4 units but that’s how confident I am backing the champ.