@Matkafee's UFC 278 Preview & Picks - 8/20

Matt Aka @Matkafee | @matkafee

Kamaru Usman v Leon Edwards

Kamaru Usman is one of best pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC and is defending his welterweight title against Leon Edwards. This is a rematch from a previous fight in 2015 in which Usman wrestled his way to a dominant decision victory. Usman wasn’t well rounded then but has added to his game and now possesses the ability to knock people out. Edwards has good standup but he got flashed by Nate Diaz in his last fight. If that fight went another round I think Nate would’ve got Leon out of there. I can see Usman winning this fight by using his wrestling again but something tells me he will choose to keep the fight standing. While that plays into Edwards’ strengths I think the champ trusts his power edge. The first round is usually spent figuring out distance and finding a rhythm and I see it going into the second for sure. After that the action will pick up and I’ve got Usman by KO sometime over the next 20 minutes.

I’m putting four units on Usman by KO/TKO but dividing it into four bets. One unit on each round prop: Two +1500, Three +1600, Four +2600 and Five +3200. Now this means I want to go 1/4 but no matter which one hits, the payout is higher than taking Usman’s KO straight around +250. If this goes any other way I’m down 4 units but that’s how confident I am backing the champ.

Matt's Usman v Edwards Picks

Matt's Picks:

1U each

  • Usman KO/TKO & Round 2 | +1500
  • Usman KO/TKO & Round 3 | +1600
  • Usman KO/TKO & Round 4 | +2600
  • Usman KO/TKO & Round 5 | +3200

Find these combos on FanDuel beneath "Method of Victory" under "Method & Round Combo (5 Rounds)"

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Luke Rockhold v Paulo Costa

Luke Rockhold is coming out of retirement for this match against Paulo Costa. Rockhold is coming off three knockout losses in his last four fights. I’m really surprised the matchmakers would give Rockhold such a difficult opponent for his return. Costa is much more powerful and way more durable than the American. If this fight stays standing and I imagine it will, Luke won’t be able to take many shots from the Brazilian.

It’s just a matter of time before Rockhold crumbles and while I was tempted to call my shot I’m just taking Costa to win in Round 1 or Round 2 at -125.

Matt's Rockhold vs Costa Pick

Matt's Pick: Paulo Costa Round 1 or 2 | -125

Find this pick on FanDuel beneath "Round Props" under "Alt. Round Betting"

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