$FML's MLB Thursday Bet of the Day - 4/20

My buddy’s a HUGE Pirates fan. Naturally the dude planned to fade them every game. Good thing I talked him off that ledge. Fast forward 3 weeks from the text, and they’re 12-7. Factoring in odds… If you bet the same dollar amount on their ML every game, you’d be up +44.2% (2nd best ML ROI league-wide). 

Tonight, the torch gets passed to Roansy Contreras — arguably PIT’s best starting pitcher. He’s posted a 6.00 ERA through 3 starts, but most of that damage came in a single outing vs. Houston. Peripheral numbers remain solid (for example, 3.65 Fielding Independent Pitching), which makes Contreras a progression candidate (I.e. due for better headline results soon).
Meanwhile the fizzling Reds (3-7 L10) will counter with 29-year-old veteran Luke Weaver, a 6.56 ERA pitcher last year (mostly in relief). Tonight’s his season debut and to be blunt: I’m not very optimistic on him.

Cincinnati’s offense can be brilliant on occasion but are mostly inconsistent. Pittsburgh’s bats meanwhile have been as steady as it gets. They’re scoring 5.21 runs per game (6th best), which compares to just 4.00 for the Reds away from home.
Those trends plus the distinct pitching advantage point to value in the First 5 innings market! Pittsburgh opened as -125 ML favorites to win the game. The market steamed them down to -155, but the F5 price didn’t budge much, so I’m hopping on it!

The Pick: Pirates -0.5 First 5 Innings (-115)