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John Bollman’s Bet of the Day - 7/7

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

The San Francisco Giants take on the San Diego Padres in an NL West matchup between two good teams.  The Giants barely escaped a sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks last series, and they are now 4-12 in their last 16 games.  They have seriously struggled lately, and they have been losing a lot.  They are now 41-39 on the season and at risk of dropping below .500 in this series.  Lucky for them, the Padres are also struggling right now having won just two of their last 10 games.  They are actually much worse at home at 21-18 while the Giants play the same regardless of the location.  Both teams have actually been pretty decent against winning teams as well.  The Padres are 20-22 against teams over .500 while the Giants are 18-18 against teams over .500.  These are very important games for both these teams as the Padres are just 3.5 games clear of missing the playoffs while the Giants are a game out of the playoffs.

The Padres are 4-2 against the Giants this season and all 6 of those games were on the road.  They swept the most recent series.  Joe Musgrove will be starting for the Padres, and he has easily been their best pitcher this season.  He pitched a quality start in every appearance this season except for one.  He also pitched seven scoreless innings against the Giants the first time he faced them this season.  Logan Webb has been pitching really well lately, and he only allowed 1 ER in 8 IP to the Padres the first time he faced them this season.  However, he is much worse on the road in his career, and he has been worse on the road this season with a 3.77 ERA.  

The biggest advantage for the Padres in this matchup is their bullpen.  They have the 5th best bullpen ERA in the league in the past 30 days while the Giants are ranked 20th in the league.  Camilo Doval also threw 37 pitches yesterday after pitching the day before, so he will most likely be unavailable for the Giants tonight.  John Brebbia is probably the Giants best reliever, and he should be available, but he has also pitched each of the past two nights so he will be worked.  The Padres meanwhile had yesterday off so their bullpen should be rested and ready.  I like the Padres at home.Padres -135 vs. Giants

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