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John Bollman's MLB Bet of the Day - 5/27

Mets vs Phillies

The New York Mets travel home to face the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. The Mets had an off day yesterday after returning home from the West Coast, and that should significantly help them get rested. The Phillies come into New York after a win last night, but they traveled after the night game. These two teams have already matched up three times this season with the Mets winning all three series. The Mets are 6-3 against the Phillies this season including 2-1 at home. The last series these teams faced each other in New York was actually when the Mets had the miraculous 9th inning comeback.

Carlos Carrasco will get the start for the Mets, and he is 3-0 with a 2.59 ERA in May. He has somehow avoided facing the Phillies despite the Mets playing them 9 times already this season. Bailey Falter will get the start for the Phillies after Zach Eflin was originally slated to start. It looks like Zach Eflin was bumped to tomorrow, he has been pitching very well. At first, I was thinking they might be using Falter as an opener for Eflin but I think they would only do that if Eflin were performing poorly. I wouldn’t put anything past Joe Girardi though. Bailey Falter has pitched well in his 12 innings this season, and he is a lefty. The Mets tend to struggle against lefties. However, he shouldn’t be able to pitch more than five innings. He went 4.2 innings on May 11 but that was the longest outing of his season. That means we will have about half the game for the Phillies bullpen, and we know how much the Mets like hitting against this Phillies bullpen.

The Phillies have been struggling against the Mets all season long, and I think part of it is mental. After blowing that massive lead as a player, you definitely start to think about it as soon as another save opportunity comes. The Mets should be able to continue to exploit this weakness from the Phillies and I think that continues tonight. Both bullpens are completely rested with the Mets off yesterday, and the Phillies only pitching their closer Corey Knebel. The Phillies are also 3-8 in one run games this season and in the NL East, there tend to be plenty of one run games. I like the Mets at home.