With just 35 days remaining until the 2022-23 NBA season begins, it is time to slowly begin our pre-season analysis as all the dominos start falling into place.
Just like any other pre-season bet, guessing the coach of the year is no easy task, especially in a narrative driven league like the NBA. If we were to simplify things and look at historic data of past winners, we can notice that the winner of this award is almost exclusively the coach of one of the four best teams at the end of the regular season. However, there are no guarantees.
For example, last season we had the Suns’ Monty Williams win the award with a 64-18 record, while the season before that it was Tom Thibodeau who got the award after leading the Knicks to a 41-31 record and a playoff berth as the 4th seed in the East. So on top of records and narratives, improvement from past years also plays a factor in determining the winner of this award.
Injuries also have a big impact of teams’ records and subsequentially the winner of this award. Last season LA Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue defied the odds all year long playing without his two best players and finished with a 42-40 record, receiving 2nd and 3rd place votes for the award. It’s hard to predict injuries though, so I wouldn’t put too much thinking into that aspect of this award.