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Capper Penguin's MNF Bears @ Patriots Pick - 10/24

MNF: Bears @ Patriots

The Bears pass defense is elite, BUT their rushing defense is SECOND WORST in the NFL and the Patriots love to run the ball. Let me paint the picture. The Bears passing defense has only allowed opposing quarterbacks 178.7 passing yards per game this season, but have allowed almost as many rushing yards per game at 163 rushing yards. Luckily for the Patriots (and us), they thrive on a grind it out, running affair. The Patriots average 131 yards rushing yards per game with a big uptick at home averaging 160.5 RYPG.

The only reason this line is so low is because Damien Harris returns to the lineup and will (at most) take half of Dre's carries, but Dre covered in his last 3 with Damien Harris playing including at home vs a very tough Baltimore rush defense (73 yards on 12 carries). Dre has been absolutely eating on the ground with or without Damien covering in his L4/4 averaging 94 RYPG making me believe that he will still see the bulk of the carries. Even if he sees half the touches and the Patriots maintain their normal 131 RYPG, he'll end with about 65 rushing, but given the big uptick at home vs the league's second worst rushing defense, he should have no problem covering 60. Add in the fact that we have a very favorable game script with the Patriots favored by 8.5, Rhamondre is locked and loaded for 60+ rushing.

Best odds on FD.

Capper Penguin's Pick 🐧

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Rhamondre Stevenson 60+ Alt rushing yards @ -118
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