First of all, I want to set the stage by saying that Tom Brady has not played that bad at home this season and has a big uptick in passing yards. He's passed for over 1000 yards in three games at home this season including 385 yards in his last primetime game vs the Chiefs and he's primed to have a bunch again in a bounceback primetime game tonight. Brady also covered this line last game vs a Panthers defense that allows about 230 PYPG.
The question is, who will Tom Brady be throwing to? Cade Otton will be a top candidate. Baltimore gives up a ton of yards to the tight end position and without Cameron Brate, Cade should get an uptick in targets. Tight Ends have covered this receiving line in Baltimore's last 4 games and have been the top receiver on the team (in terms of receptions or yards) in their last three. He covered in his last game with 64 yards (4 receptions) and his last game at home with 43 yards (6 receptions). The two games he didn't cover Cameron Brate shared targets with him. With a very middle of the pack offensive line, Brady will take advantage of quick throws up the middle.
We have a pretty favorable game script going into Thursday Night Football. This will most likely be a back and forth game, but based on how the Ravens play, Brady will have to play catch up and should keep throwing the ball like he did vs Carolina. It's no secret that the Buccaneers have been struggling this year, especially with the run game, after losing their last two games to the Steelers and Panthers. The run game probably isn't getting back on track vs the Ravens who are in the top 10 run defenses (based on RYPG), but luckily for Brady, the Ravens have been allowing 267 PYPG. Give TB12 to throw a ton of yards at home vs a vulnerable Ravens defense that has given a bunch of receiving yards to Tight Ends.
