NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

As we move closer to the start of the NFL’s regular season, we’re starting to look at player awards – more specifically the AP’s Comeback Player of the Year Award.

While there’s no defined criteria for the award, it’s usually given to a player that couldn’t play the previous season due to a serious injury that goes on to have a great comeback season the next year. It also helps if a player’s team seemingly gave up on them in the past season. Below, we’ll break down this year’s favorites, dark horses, past winners, and how to bet on the Comeback Player of the Year.

Derrick Henry +400

+1,100 as of 10/21/22

The #1 favorite for the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year Award is Tennessee Titans running back (RB) Derrick Henry. Last year, Henry was leading the NFL in both RB rushing yards and touchdowns (10 TD & 937 rushing yards through 8 games) before breaking a bone in his foot right halfway through the season.

The Titans utilize a very run-centric gameplan and if Derrick Henry is fully healthy (which he seems to be), expect the Titans to give him the ball every chance they get. If that happens… Good luck to all the other candidates.

Jameis Winston +500

+8,000 as of 10/21/22

Coming in as the 2nd favorite, we have Jameis Winston of the New Orleans Saints. Winston became the starting quarterback for the Saints last year after the legendary Drew Brees’ 2021 retirement. Winston was having a very solid season (14 TD & 1,170 passing yards through 7 games) for the Saints until he tore his ACL.

With Alvin Kamara as his RB and elite WR Michael Thomas returning after missing the entirety of last season, Jameis Winston has all the necessary tools needed to have a great comeback season.

Christian McCaffrey +800

+500 as of 10/21/22

It wasn’t that long ago that RB Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers was considered one of the best offensive players in the NFL. He made the second-team All-Pro in 2018 and followed that up with a historic season in 2019, becoming only the 3rd player in NFL history to record +1,000 rushing yards and +1,000 receiving yards, earning himself a spot on the first-team All-Pro.

In 2020, McCaffrey started dealing with hamstring and ankle injuries, allowing him to only play 10 games through the 2020 and 2021 seasons. If he can remain healthy throughout the 2022 season, we might get to see the same Christian McCaffrey that took over the league a few seasons ago.

Baker Mayfield +1,000

+10,000 as of 10/5/22

Baker Mayfield was selected as the No. 1 pick by the Cleveland Browns in the 2018 NFL Draft. He put up solid numbers as the Browns QB in his first few seasons and even helped lead his team to their first winning season since 2007 and first playoff win since 1994. His 2021 season was quite underwhelming although it should be noted that he played a large portion of the season with an ongoing shoulder issue.

The Browns were quite quick to trade Mayfield to the Panthers this past offseason. Many Browns fans (and NFL fans in general) felt that the Browns had completely given up on a still-young and promising player. He is set to be the starting QB for the Panthers this year and if he can stay healthy and put up good numbers all while the Panthers have a good season, Baker Mayfield has a solid chance of walking away with the Comeback Player of the Year Award.

Michael Thomas +1,600

+8,000 as of 10/21/22

Along with Jameis Winston, the Saints have another top Comeback Player of Year candidate in wide receiver Michael Thomas. Thomas came into the league as a rookie in 2016 and almost immediately made his case for the best WR in the NFL. In 2017 he made his first Pro Bowl. In 2018 he made the Pro Bowl again along with first team All-Pro honors. Come 2019, Thomas made the Pro Bowl, first team All-Pro and was named the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year.

Thomas suffered an ankle injury in 2020 that put him out of action for the rest of the season then suffered another injury setback in last year’s preseason, effectively ending his 2021 season before it even started. It’s obvious that a fully healthy Michael Thomas is one of the league’s best wide receivers and if he can gel with Jameis Winston while staying healthy, his chances of winning Comeback Player of the Year will only go up.

Saquon Barkley +1,600

-200 as of 10/21/22

As a rookie, Saquon Barkley looked like he was the next chosen one. But in 2020, he suffered an ACL tear that ended his season just two games in. The following year he dealt with an ankle sprain that lingered causing another underwhelming season. Barkley is supposedly coming into this season with full health.

If the new-look Giants can put up a decent record and Saquon can stay healthy, he will most definitely be one the main candidates for Comeback Player of the Year.

JuJu Smith-Schuster +2,000

+7,500 as of 10/21/22

JuJu suffered a shoulder injury in Week 5 last year, causing him to miss the rest of the season. In the offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers sent him to the Kansas City Chiefs. If you’ve been keeping up with NFL news you’ll know that elite WR Tyreek Hill is no longer on the Chiefs.

So with the opportunity to be a starting wide receiver with Patty Mahomes as his quarterback, we may see an impressive run from JuJu for the Comeback Award.

Julio Jones +3500

+3000 as of 10/5/22

The former Atlanta Falcon Julio Jones is expected to make his NFL return with the Buccaneers after missing out on the majority of the past two seasons with a lingering hamstring injury. To be fair, he is 33 years old and might start slowing down this year. But if he’s as electric as he was before his injuries and Tom Brady is feeding him, this is worth a look at +3500.

Joe Burrow (2021)

Joe Burrow tore multiple muscles in his leg during a Week 11 game against Washington in 2020. He responded the next season by leading the Bengals to their first Super Bowl appearance since 1989.

Alex Smith (2020)

Alex Smith suffered a quite gruesome injury during the 2018 season. He fractured his tibia and fibula (basically the two bones that make up one’s lower leg) in the middle of a game and that effectively snapped his entire lower leg bone. Smith was expected to return for the 2019 season but had very serious complications with injury infection. He ended up making his return in the 2020 season and while his play wasn’t necessarily amazing, the fact that he was able to come back from such a gruesome injury made Smith deserving of the award.

Ryan Tannehill (2019)

Ryan Tannehill expected to be the new face of the Miami Dolphins. A few injuries later, he found himself being shipped to Tennessee. That season he put up career-high numbers with the Titans and led them to two giant upsets to reach the AFC championship.

Looking to bet on the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year?

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On most sportsbooks, you’ll find Comeback Player of the Year in the NFL section under a title like “Awards” or “Season Awards”.

This is a “Futures” pick, so you can expect it to be in your active bets till the end of the season!