@FastMoneyLabs' +570 NFL Sunday Parlay: Week 3 - 9/25

I’ve been heads-down focused on building a redemption parlay ever since we lost our Thursday Night SGP on the last play. Here’s where I landed:

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Leg 1: Jaylen Waddle over 5.5 Receptions (-130) vs. Bills

Fresh off seeing 19 targets and erupting for a career-high 171 receiving yards on 11 catches, it’s hard not to like Waddle's outlook this week.

He’s up against a Bills secondary that’s elite when healthy but decimated with injuries right now. According to Football Focus (PFF), Waddle stands to benefit most from the injury situation with an exploitable WR/CB matchup vs. Kaiir Elam, a rookie backup allowing 83.3% completion rate and 66.7% first down plus touchdown rate when targeted. It's a small sample size (given Elam is a rookie), but Mike McDaniel and Co. would be wise to test his limits on Sunday.

Waddle's yards prop was tempting for me, but I preferred the receptons given: (1) he leads Miami in first down receptions, and (2) his CB matchup is a target magnet when you need a first down. This creates a clear path to cash the ticket in short yardage situations, even if he fails to make a big play. While his Week 2 yards output looked terrific in the box score, it was aided by two 20+ yard catches, including a 59-yard play. I’m not sure big plays like that are sustainable for Waddle on a weekly basis, whereas the short targets surely are.

Note: I also placed a straight wager on this prop to win 0.5 units.

Leg 2: Jalen Hurts over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-114) vs. Commanders

This prop is closer to 53.5 at most US-based sportsbooks and 54.5 on Pinnacle, which is a sharper offshore book that takes action from Pros (unlike DK and FD who impose strict limits on professional bettors). I'm not sure why FanDuel has 50.5, so let's hop on it while we can. Hurts cleared this number with scramble yards alone in Week 1 (64 scramble yards) and nearly did it again in Week 2 (44 scramble yards). Tack on the fact he's seeing a bump in designed run play calls this season (average 7.5 per game in 2022, up from 6.0 in 2021), and it leads me to see value at this 50.5 line.

I also like how: (1) this is a divisional game, which theoretically reduces blowout risk (since both sides know eachother well), and (2) the Commanders allowed the most QB rush yards last season but the third fewest this season, which has mainly been a function of matchups vs. less run heavy teams. I view Week 3 as the perfect time to buy low on that trend with Hurts in town.

Note: I also placed a straight wager on this prop to win 0.5 units.

If you're feelin' risky, I also like Hurts to rush for a touchdown as he's done 3x already this season. He also scored twice in a game vs. Washington last season.

Leg 3: Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+102) vs. Colts

Take this stat for what it's worth to you: Betting Mahomes to throw 3+ Pass TDs is 12-3 (80%) in September games since 2018. It's a well-known trend that I'm not necessarily buying here, but I like the matchup and expected game script for him against a desperate Colts team.

Indianapolis is off to an embarrassing 0-1-1 start, which has inspired 72% of tickets to hit Kansas City on the spread. If the majority of tickets are coming in on the Chiefs, you’d expect the line to move towards them, right? Not so fast. Turns out oddsmakers have made it even cheaper and easier to bet (or double down on) KC by dropping the spread from -6.5 at the open to -5.5 currently. Very interesting, right? This implies sportsbooks expect a closer game than the public might think on Sunday. Not the best news for Chiefs spread bettors, but it gives us a good basis to back Mahomes to continue his trend of raining Pass TDs in September. The only way I see this missing is a blowout scenario, which clearly the oddsmakers don't expect (though anything is possible, of course).

Note: I also placed a straight wager on this prop to win 0.5 units at +112 odds available at Barstool Sportsbook, BetRivers and SugarHouse.

The Slip

I got +570 odds for the Parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook and risked 0.5 units (i.e. half normal bet size) to win 2.85.

I also took each bet straight to win 0.5 units/each at the best available line/odds for each prop, which were:

  • Legs 1 & 2: FanDuel (same odds as Parlay)
  • Leg 3: Barstool, BetRivers or SugarHouse (Mahomes 3+ Pass TD is +112, which led me to place my straight wager with them)
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