Tom Brady made my INT prop pick look silly yesterday, but given we had success in this market last year (especially in primetime games), I’m going right back to it.
@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet for Monday Night Football - 9/19
Tennessee Titans (0-1) @ Buffalo Bills (1-0)
Betting opposing QBs to throw an INT is 11-4 (73%) when they attempt 22+ passes vs. Buffalo (since 2021), and Ryan Tannehill attempted 22+ passes in 38/44 (89%) career as a starter for Tennessee.
He averages 27.7 pass attempts (+5.7 vs. the magic 22 number) per game as a Vegas underdog, and tonight he’s a 10-point dog. His pass attempts prop line is set at o/u 31.5 with juice to the over, indicating to expect pass-heavy game script.
Betting Tannehill to throw an INT is 7-1 (87.5%) in his last 8 as an underdog. It’s also 4-1 (80%) in his last 5 games away from home.
The Bills had the #1 pass defense last year and are currently ranked #2 by Football Outsiders. They tricked Rams QB Matt Stafford into throwing 3 INTs last week on the road in LA. Tonight, we only need 1 at home in Buffalo.
Tannehill has posted an impressive 10-7 (59%) record (straight up) as an underdog with Tennessee, but most of those contests featured tight spreads. When getting a touchdown or more (7 points), he’s just 1-1, and Tannehill’s never faced a spread of more than 8 points.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills are no strangers to 10+ point spreads at home. It’s happened 7 times in the Allen era, and they’re 5-2 ATS and 7-0 straight up in this spot with him under center. While I do think the Bills cover, I prefer the simplicity of a bet they’ll win the game via the moneyline.
Bills ML is obviously pricey tonight, but pairing with Tannehill INT gets our odds to +115 (via Draftkings SGP), and I see value at that price given the two bets are correlated.
I wagered accordingly (risk 1 unit to win 1.15u).
The Pick: Ryan Tannehill 1+ INT & Lose (+115)via Draftkings Sportsbook
$FML's Best Bet
RYAN TANNEHILL 1+ INT & BILLS ML @ +115
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