@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet for Monday Night Football - 9/19

Tom Brady made my INT prop pick look silly yesterday, but given we had success in this market last year (especially in primetime games), I’m going right back to it.

Betting opposing QBs to throw an INT is 11-4 (73%) when they attempt 22+ passes vs. Buffalo (since 2021), and Ryan Tannehill attempted 22+ passes in 38/44 (89%) career as a starter for Tennessee.

He averages 27.7 pass attempts (+5.7 vs. the magic 22 number) per game as a Vegas underdog, and tonight he’s a 10-point dog. His pass attempts prop line is set at o/u 31.5 with juice to the over, indicating to expect pass-heavy game script.
Betting Tannehill to throw an INT is 7-1 (87.5%) in his last 8 as an underdog. It’s also 4-1 (80%) in his last 5 games away from home.

The Bills had the #1 pass defense last year and are currently ranked #2 by Football Outsiders. They tricked Rams QB Matt Stafford into throwing 3 INTs last week on the road in LA. Tonight, we only need 1 at home in Buffalo.

Tannehill has posted an impressive 10-7 (59%) record (straight up) as an underdog with Tennessee, but most of those contests featured tight spreads. When getting a touchdown or more (7 points), he’s just 1-1, and Tannehill’s never faced a spread of more than 8 points.

Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Bills are no strangers to 10+ point spreads at home. It’s happened 7 times in the Allen era, and they’re 5-2 ATS and 7-0 straight up in this spot with him under center. While I do think the Bills cover, I prefer the simplicity of a bet they’ll win the game via the moneyline.

Bills ML is obviously pricey tonight, but pairing with Tannehill INT gets our odds to +115 (via Draftkings SGP), and I see value at that price given the two bets are correlated.

I wagered accordingly (risk 1 unit to win 1.15u).

The Pick: Ryan Tannehill 1+ INT & Lose (+115)via Draftkings Sportsbook