Before $FML, I was a risk manager at a large commercial bank, and I hate to admit: I respect what Sportsbooks do (as much as I’m devoted to beating them).
They’re taking in millions of dollars of wagers each night, and to help manage it: they adjust betting lines and prices accordingly, practically in real time, to inspire two-way action (I.e. not just on one side).
Which raises an interesting question: if 74% of public bets and 75% money are on Pittsburgh, then why did oddsmakers move the betting line two full points towards Cleveland from -2.5 to -4.5? (Source: Action Network as of midnight last night).
At first glance I thought those percentages had to be wrong. They don’t fit with the line movement. To sense check them, I compared with the Pikkit Sports community handle below and found strikingly similar splits, which leads me to believe this is a real thing: