@FastMoneyLabs' Best Thursday Night Football Bet - 10/6

Primetime NFL betting markets can be tough to beat. This is especially true when dealing with spreads and totals. Luckily we’re aware of this phenomenon, and it inspired us roll up our sleeves and dive into one of the darkest, dustiest corners of the market that practically nobody looks at. Yes, I’m referring to Punts. Here’s what I found:

🚨 $6,000 in Free Bets 🚨
CLAIM NOW
We have over $6,000 in free bets available, check out what's available in your state!

Week 5: Colts @ Broncos

Since 2021, Denver’s defense is forcing 4.27 punts per game at home (median value 4.0), up from 3.10 on the road (median value 3.0). The difference chalks up to home field advantage, an edge they hold tonight.

Looking at 2022 only, they're forcing 4.5 punts per game overall (9th most) and 6.0 at home (tied for most). Both opponents (Houston and San Francisco) punted 5+ times in visits to Denver this season.

Enter the Colts, whose offense ranks dead last (#32) in Football Outsiders’ DVOA tables and will be without star running back Jonathan Taylor tonight, and I like Denver’s chances of forcing 5+ punts again at Mile High.

If I’m right, then the Combined Total Punts prop line for tonight’s contest is a tick too low at the 7.5 number listed at Draftkings Sportsbook right now. I fully expect 5+ from the Jonathan Taylor-less Colts; and to split the difference, we just need 3+ from a Broncos offense that is also struggling and missing firepower (star RB Javontae Williams tore his ACL on Sunday).

@FastMoneyLabs' TNF Best Bet

Icing on the cake: I pulled the data for Thursday night games dating back to 2012 (when the weekly event went live). To make the dataset more meaningful, I adjusted to exclude Week 1 and any games where teams were coming off a bye week. The intention of these adjustments is to isolate spots where teams were coming off a short week and had minimal prep time. Here’s what I found:

  • Those games saw an average of 9.1 combined punts per game (median value 9.0)
  • Betting these Thursday Night games to finish over 7.5 combined punts is 89-55 (61.8%) in that period
  • Excluding 2020 (year with empty stadiums due to COVID), it’s 85-48 (63.9%)

This might be the least exciting bet we could possibly root for tonight, but my analysis strongly supports it. Feed me 8+ punts @ -125 odds Draftkings (bet down to -140).

The pick: Over 7.5 Total Punts (-125)

Odds via Draftkings Sportsbook

FML

$FML Best Thursday Night Bet

draftkings

IND/DEN OVER 7.5 TOTAL PUNTS @ -125

Broncos

DEN

-110

+8.5

Ravens

BAL

-110

-8.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Browns

CLE

-110

-7

Texans

HOU

-110

+7

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Commanders

WAS

-110

-2.5

Giants

NYG

-110

+2.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Jaguars

JAX

-115

+1

Lions

DET

-105

-1

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Jets

NYJ

-110

+3

Vikings

MIN

-110

-3

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Packers

GB

-110

-3.5

Bears

CHI

-110

+3.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Steelers

PIT

-110

-1

Falcons

ATL

-110

+1

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Titans

TEN

-110

+4.5

Eagles

PHI

-110

-4.5

NFL | Sun 12/04, 6:00 PM
Dolphins

MIA

-110

+4

49ers

SF

-110

-4

NFL | Sun 12/04, 9:05 PM
Seahawks

SEA

-110

-7

Rams

LAR

-110

+7

NFL | Sun 12/04, 9:05 PM

Free Bets & Offers


🍗 Thanksgiving Offer 🏈 Bet $20, Get $100!
21+ in CO, VA, MI. Promo code GET100
Claim Now
Bet $5 & Get $150 in Free Bets 💰
AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WY, WV 21+ only
CLAIM NOW
Bet $10 on any World Cup game & Win $200 When A Goal Is Scored ⚽️💰
Available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, KS, LA, MI, NJ, TN, VA, WV, WY. 21+ only
CLAIM OFFER
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2022 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.1 (1)