Bet Slip

No Bets Added

@FastMoneyLabs' Best Thursday Night Football Bet - 10/6

Primetime NFL betting markets can be tough to beat. This is especially true when dealing with spreads and totals. Luckily we’re aware of this phenomenon, and it inspired us roll up our sleeves and dive into one of the darkest, dustiest corners of the market that practically nobody looks at. Yes, I’m referring to Punts. Here’s what I found:

FlashPicks Logo

The BIGGEST Bonus Bet Promos in New Jersey!

We have over $6,000 in Bonus Bets & promos available, check out what's available in your state!

CLICK HERE

Week 5: Colts @ Broncos

Since 2021, Denver’s defense is forcing 4.27 punts per game at home (median value 4.0), up from 3.10 on the road (median value 3.0). The difference chalks up to home field advantage, an edge they hold tonight.

Looking at 2022 only, they're forcing 4.5 punts per game overall (9th most) and 6.0 at home (tied for most). Both opponents (Houston and San Francisco) punted 5+ times in visits to Denver this season.

Enter the Colts, whose offense ranks dead last (#32) in Football Outsiders’ DVOA tables and will be without star running back Jonathan Taylor tonight, and I like Denver’s chances of forcing 5+ punts again at Mile High.

If I’m right, then the Combined Total Punts prop line for tonight’s contest is a tick too low at the 7.5 number listed at Draftkings Sportsbook right now. I fully expect 5+ from the Jonathan Taylor-less Colts; and to split the difference, we just need 3+ from a Broncos offense that is also struggling and missing firepower (star RB Javontae Williams tore his ACL on Sunday).

@FastMoneyLabs' TNF Best Bet

Icing on the cake: I pulled the data for Thursday night games dating back to 2012 (when the weekly event went live). To make the dataset more meaningful, I adjusted to exclude Week 1 and any games where teams were coming off a bye week. The intention of these adjustments is to isolate spots where teams were coming off a short week and had minimal prep time. Here’s what I found:

  • Those games saw an average of 9.1 combined punts per game (median value 9.0)
  • Betting these Thursday Night games to finish over 7.5 combined punts is 89-55 (61.8%) in that period
  • Excluding 2020 (year with empty stadiums due to COVID), it’s 85-48 (63.9%)

This might be the least exciting bet we could possibly root for tonight, but my analysis strongly supports it. Feed me 8+ punts @ -125 odds Draftkings (bet down to -140).

The pick: Over 7.5 Total Punts (-125)

Odds via Draftkings Sportsbook

FML

$FML Best Thursday Night Bet

draftkings logo
IND/DEN over 7.5 total punts @ -125
Free Bets & Promo Codes
Houston Texans logo

HOU

Kansas City Chiefs logo

KC

NFL | Sat 12/21, 6:00 PM
Pittsburgh Steelers logo

PIT

Baltimore Ravens logo

BAL

NFL | Sat 12/21, 9:30 PM
Arizona Cardinals logo

ARI

Carolina Panthers logo

CAR

NFL | Sun 12/22, 6:00 PM
Cleveland Browns logo

CLE

Cincinnati Bengals logo

CIN

NFL | Sun 12/22, 6:00 PM
Detroit Lions logo

DET

Chicago Bears logo

CHI

NFL | Sun 12/22, 6:00 PM
Los Angeles Rams logo

LAR

New York Jets logo

NYJ

NFL | Sun 12/22, 6:00 PM
New York Giants logo

NYG

Atlanta Falcons logo

ATL

NFL | Sun 12/22, 6:00 PM
Philadelphia Eagles logo

PHI

Washington Commanders logo

WAS

NFL | Sun 12/22, 6:00 PM
Tennessee Titans logo

TEN

Indianapolis Colts logo

IND

NFL | Sun 12/22, 6:00 PM
Minnesota Vikings logo

MIN

Seattle Seahawks logo

SEA

NFL | Sun 12/22, 9:05 PM