@FastMoneyLabs' Key Trends to Know for Cowboys @ Giants - 9/26

As a biased Giants fan struggling with NFL bets right now, I’m pivoting from my usual picks to highlight trends you might find interesting (and hopefully useful) leading up to tonight’s contest:

⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+

Daniel Jones: Wizard vs. Divisional Opponents?

  • The former first round pick is a respectable 21-17 (55%) ATS as a starter, and looking at his splits by opponent exhibit an interesting trend.
  • vs. Divisional opponents, he’s 9-3 (75%) ATS (excluding one game he left early with a concussion), which drops to just 12-14 ATS (46%) vs. Non-Divisional opponents.
  • At Home: Jones is 5-2 (71%) Straight Up (SU) vs. his Division, which compares to 3-10 (30%) SU vs. Non-Divisional opponents.
  • He’s also 2-1 (67%) ATS vs. the Dallas Cowboys; 1-2 (33%) SU.
  • When the Cowboys visit New York, he’s 1-1 both ATS and SU.

Dak Prescott ATS Impact: Mostly Muted, with One Key Exception?

  • Dallas is 48-36-1 (57%) ATS with Dak Prescott (excluding one meaningless game before 2018 playoffs when he only played two drives).
  • Without Prescott, they’re a more mediocre 7-7 (50%) ATS since 2017, not too bad.
  • However, on the Road vs. Divisional Opponents without Dak Prescott, they’re 0-4 ATS.
  • The caveat to these trends relates to the fact they have a new backup QB under center, and Cooper Rush is a perfect 2-0 ATS and SU as a spot starter for Dallas.

Game Total Trend is… Underwhelming at MetLife Stadium:

  • The Under is 14-6 (70%) in Giants Home Games when Daniel Jones starts.
  • It’s also 9-5 (64%) in Cowboys games without Dak Prescott since 2017.
  • The Over is 4-2 (67%) in Giants/Cowboys matchups in the Daniel Jones era.
  • However, it’s just 1-2 (33%) in the games played at Metlife Stadium.
Raiders

LV

-110

o44.5

Rams

LAR

-110

u44.5

NFL | Fri 12/09, 1:15 AM
Browns

CLE

-110

o47

Bengals

CIN

-110

u47

NFL | Sun 12/11, 6:00 PM
Eagles

PHI

-110

o45.5

Giants

NYG

-110

u45.5

NFL | Sun 12/11, 6:00 PM
Jaguars

JAX

-110

o41.5

Titans

TEN

-110

u41.5

NFL | Sun 12/11, 6:00 PM
Jets

NYJ

-110

o44

Bills

BUF

-110

u44

NFL | Sun 12/11, 6:00 PM
Ravens

BAL

-110

o37

Steelers

PIT

-110

u37

NFL | Sun 12/11, 6:00 PM
Texans

HOU

-110

o45

Cowboys

DAL

-110

u45

NFL | Sun 12/11, 6:00 PM
Vikings

MIN

-110

o53

Lions

DET

-110

u53

NFL | Sun 12/11, 6:00 PM
Chiefs

KC

-110

o43

Broncos

DEN

-110

u43

NFL | Sun 12/11, 9:05 PM
Buccaneers

TB

-110

o37

49ers

SF

-110

u37

NFL | Sun 12/11, 9:25 PM

Market Signals

At time of writing:

  • 55% of spread tickets are on the Giants, but 52% of the money is on the Cowboys, indicating sharper bettors (who theoretically wager more) prefer Dallas.
  • This might explain why oddsmakers dropped the line from NYG -2.5 (just five days ago) to more of a pick ‘em right now.
  • The more meaningful split is playing out in the Game Total market, as 53% of tickets are on the Over, whereas 67% of the money is on the Under.
  • That’s a significant difference, which led oddsmakers to shave 1.5 points off the game total, which is currently o/u 39 (down from 40.5 nine days ago).

Key Points to Remember

In Summary:

  • Daniel Jones historically thrives in one situation: ATS vs. the Division.
  • Dallas also struggles ATS on the Road vs. the Division without Dak Prescott.
  • However, their trojan horse tonight could be the unsuspecting Cooper Rush, who arrives in New York sporting a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS record as a starter.
  • The market is mostly split on the spread, with good-two way action tilting slightly towards Dallas (based on money wagered).
  • A more meaningful split has been observed in the Game Total market, where the Public naturally likes the Over (53% of tickets) whereas Sharp Bettors clearly prefer the Under (67% of money) — at least at it’s original line of 40.5

I won’t be surprised if my Giants lose in embarrassing fashion to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys tonight — that’s just how we’re conditioned to think at this point. However, taking a more objective view of the trends points to what likely plays out as a classic, low-scoring divisional battle in the Meadowlands that could very-well come down to the last possession. I didn’t place any wagers yet but if I did, it would likely involve teasing the Cowboys’ spread up to +7.5 and the Game Total up to 45.5, where I’d take the Under. My more specific prediction is that the Giants will lose on a last second field goal. If you can find a book offering that specific prop bet, please let me know on Twitter (@FastMoneyLabs). Thanks in advance and good luck tonight, gang.

🚨 $6,000 in Free Bets 🚨
CLAIM NOW
We have over $6,000 in free bets available, check out what's available in your state!

Free Bets & Offers


Bet $20 & Win $100 in Fee Bets! 🏈
21+ in CO, VA, MI. Promo code GET100
CLAIM BONUS
Bet $5 & Get $150 in Free Bets 💰
AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WY, WV 21+ only
CLAIM NOW
Bet $10 on any World Cup game & Win $200 When A Goal Is Scored ⚽️💰
Available in AZ, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, KS, LA, MI, NJ, TN, VA, WV, WY. 21+ only
CLAIM OFFER
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2022 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.1 (1)