As a biased Giants fan struggling with NFL bets right now, I’m pivoting from my usual picks to highlight trends you might find interesting (and hopefully useful) leading up to tonight’s contest:
@FastMoneyLabs' Key Trends to Know for Cowboys @ Giants - 9/26
Daniel Jones: Wizard vs. Divisional Opponents?
- The former first round pick is a respectable 21-17 (55%) ATS as a starter, and looking at his splits by opponent exhibit an interesting trend.
- vs. Divisional opponents, he’s 9-3 (75%) ATS (excluding one game he left early with a concussion), which drops to just 12-14 ATS (46%) vs. Non-Divisional opponents.
- At Home: Jones is 5-2 (71%) Straight Up (SU) vs. his Division, which compares to 3-10 (30%) SU vs. Non-Divisional opponents.
- He’s also 2-1 (67%) ATS vs. the Dallas Cowboys; 1-2 (33%) SU.
- When the Cowboys visit New York, he’s 1-1 both ATS and SU.
Dak Prescott ATS Impact: Mostly Muted, with One Key Exception?
- Dallas is 48-36-1 (57%) ATS with Dak Prescott (excluding one meaningless game before 2018 playoffs when he only played two drives).
- Without Prescott, they’re a more mediocre 7-7 (50%) ATS since 2017, not too bad.
- However, on the Road vs. Divisional Opponents without Dak Prescott, they’re 0-4 ATS.
- The caveat to these trends relates to the fact they have a new backup QB under center, and Cooper Rush is a perfect 2-0 ATS and SU as a spot starter for Dallas.
Game Total Trend is… Underwhelming at MetLife Stadium:
- The Under is 14-6 (70%) in Giants Home Games when Daniel Jones starts.
- It’s also 9-5 (64%) in Cowboys games without Dak Prescott since 2017.
- The Over is 4-2 (67%) in Giants/Cowboys matchups in the Daniel Jones era.
- However, it’s just 1-2 (33%) in the games played at Metlife Stadium.
At time of writing:
- 55% of spread tickets are on the Giants, but 52% of the money is on the Cowboys, indicating sharper bettors (who theoretically wager more) prefer Dallas.
- This might explain why oddsmakers dropped the line from NYG -2.5 (just five days ago) to more of a pick ‘em right now.
- The more meaningful split is playing out in the Game Total market, as 53% of tickets are on the Over, whereas 67% of the money is on the Under.
- That’s a significant difference, which led oddsmakers to shave 1.5 points off the game total, which is currently o/u 39 (down from 40.5 nine days ago).
Key Points to Remember
- Daniel Jones historically thrives in one situation: ATS vs. the Division.
- Dallas also struggles ATS on the Road vs. the Division without Dak Prescott.
- However, their trojan horse tonight could be the unsuspecting Cooper Rush, who arrives in New York sporting a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS record as a starter.
- The market is mostly split on the spread, with good-two way action tilting slightly towards Dallas (based on money wagered).
- A more meaningful split has been observed in the Game Total market, where the Public naturally likes the Over (53% of tickets) whereas Sharp Bettors clearly prefer the Under (67% of money) — at least at it’s original line of 40.5
I won’t be surprised if my Giants lose in embarrassing fashion to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys tonight — that’s just how we’re conditioned to think at this point. However, taking a more objective view of the trends points to what likely plays out as a classic, low-scoring divisional battle in the Meadowlands that could very-well come down to the last possession. I didn’t place any wagers yet but if I did, it would likely involve teasing the Cowboys’ spread up to +7.5 and the Game Total up to 45.5, where I’d take the Under. My more specific prediction is that the Giants will lose on a last second field goal. If you can find a book offering that specific prop bet, please let me know on Twitter (@FastMoneyLabs). Thanks in advance and good luck tonight, gang.