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@FastMoneyLabs' Turkey Day NFL Best Bets - 11/24

Pick #1: Bills @ Lions

Only rushed 3 times (2 designed, 1 scramble) for 7 yards on Sunday, which led me to question… should we buy the dip at a number he’s cleared at a 60% rate this season? And 56% since last season?

Considering Buffalo is heavily favored while the Lions are allowing the most rushing yards per game to QBs this year, I’ll venture to say the answer is a hard yes!

Detroit’s tightened up defensively lately but are still vulnerable vs. mobile QBs. The Giants failed to capitalize, but Daniel Jones sliced them up for 8.6 yards per carry on designed run plays alone last Sunday.

While Buffalo only called 3 designed runs in the last 2 weeks for Allen, is this not the perfect matchup to break them back out? Layer on the possibility for scramble yards… and it’s like Turkey day gravy on a well-seasoned bet.

FML's Pick

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Josh Allen over 42.5 rushing yards @ -105

Pick #2: Giants @ Cowboys

I loooove Tony Pollard. That is no secret. He scored twice last week via passing plays. However, at the goal line — Ezekiel Elliot is still that guy. And while Pollard scored twice… So did Zeke. Good chance Pollard gets in too, but for plus money odds I’ll take the value on Zeke to punch one in! My Giants’ defense is so banged up today, it’s sad. I think we’ll get smoked like Thanksgiving Turkey. If I’m right, then this bet holds value at any price down to +100.

FML's Pick

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Ezekiel Elliot Anytime TD @ +120
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Pick #3: Patriots @ Vikings

Death. Taxes. Fade Kirk Cousins in Primetime.

Debated taking Pats to win straight up, but for my best bet… I teased the spread with the game total and backed the Under. If Primetime Kirk plays true to form, this game total might not even crack 40. Both sides are strong defensively. Layer on the fact it’s a short week, and it leads me to expect a tight, hard fought battle in Minnesota tonight! In Bill we trust to tuck us in.

FML's Pick

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Patriots +7.5 / Under 49.5 Teaser @ -112
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