$FML - 49ers vs. Packers SGP Pick

Fresh off posting his first in-depth NFL previews and picks, @FastMoneyLabs is BACK with a vengeance. This time, he’s targeting the Same-Game Parlay market at BetMGM.In case you missed it, @FastMoneyLabs already has PLENTY of action on the weekend slate. To round out his portfolio of picks, $FML designed these Same-Game Parlays in a way that follows his expected game scripts (outlined in previews) but could still profit even if he’s wrong.

As hinted in my preview, I like the 49ers rushing attack and matchup vs. Green Bay (28th in Rushing DVOA). To beat the Packers, San Francisco needs to pound the rock, leading me to target Mitchell.

He’s been smashing this number. Since October 24th, Mitchell hit this mark in 7 of 9 games, meaning this has a 78% hit rate in the last 3 months. Since November 15th, he’s only missed it once, and entering tonight, he’s hit it in 3 straight (including playoffs).

Riding the hot hand in a plus matchup is one of my top strategies, and this is a prime spot to deploy it! Absolute smash spot for our guy Mitchell tonight.

With touchdowns in 4 of his last 5 (including playoffs) and 6 of his last 9 games, it didn’t take much convincing for me to add Eli’s scoring prop as a complement to Leg 1. They’re correlated, meaning if he goes over 75+ rush yards, there’s a good chance he scores, too, right? Say less, @FastMoneyLabs.

In the last two seasons (including playoffs), Rodgers’ 2+ Pass TD prop has been virtually automatic, hitting in 30 of 34 games – an 88% hit rate.

Selfishly, I also like how this offers some protection against a high-scoring game, which would be devastating for my Same-Game Teaser bet (I teased the game total up to 53.5 and backed the UNDER). I hate fading Aaron Rodgers but designing this SGP as a mini-hedge that could realistically cash even in a low-scoring game gives me comfort.

Any time you parlay bets, there’s an element of risk, so please tail responsibly, but I solid value in all 3-legs! Combined, I feel they’re correlated enough to justify stacking for an enhanced payout. Regardless if you decide to tail, good luck today, and may the Gambling Gods be with us!