$FML's +285 Best Bet: Cowboys @ Buccaneers - 1/16

$FML is back with a +285 Best Bet SGP. You read that right, Best Bet SGP - check out his masterpiece below!

Tom Brady’s bedtime is 9PM sharp.

Everybody knows it, because he revealed the routine in his book.

With that said… Unlike fine wine, the strategy isn’t aging well – at least from a betting perspective: he’s struggling to cover Spreads after dark.

Brady’s primetime descend can be traced back to his 35th birthday. He was covering late-night spreads at a 59% clip before turning 35. Since then, his primetime performance has plummeted.

Looking at recent performance only, Brady’s a pitiful 2-13 (13%) Against-The-Spread (ATS) after dark since joining the Bucs. It’s true: one of the two games he did cover was vs. these Cowboys; however, it was Opening Night (fresh out of hibernation). Dallas QB Dak Prescott was also injured in that contest. Now he’s back, and Brady hasn’t gotten any younger.

OK, so why didn’t I place a bet on Cowboys spread? It’s because I see a real chance Adrenaline takes over and supersedes the “Sleepy Tom” narrative in a playoff environment.

For my best bet, I’m pivoting to the Prop market for a Same-Game-Parlay paying nearly 3-to-1 at Draftkings Sportsbook. Mentioned on the Podcast this week and want to reiterate – I expect both QBs to throw an INT:

• Tom Brady has been picked off 14x in 15 Primetime Games with the Bucs
• Dak Prescott led the league with 15 INTs despite only playing 12 games

Applying pressure and forcing turnovers is crucial for both sides tonight, and I want action on it.

To boost potential payout, I added a related bet to the ticket: Tom Brady to attempt 40+ passes. This is 13-1 in his last 14 games (excluding Week 18 when he barely played) and should cash again barring an injury.

Parlaying bets is risky, but I love this ticket and wagered accordingly by risking a full unit to win 2.85u