$FML's +285 Best Bet: Cowboys @ Buccaneers - 1/16

$FML is back with a +285 Best Bet SGP. You read that right, Best Bet SGP - check out his masterpiece below!

⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+

Before I reveal my best bet… here’s why I lean Cowboys -2.5 but didn’t wager:

Tom Brady’s bedtime is 9PM sharp.

Everybody knows it, because he revealed the routine in his book.

With that said… Unlike fine wine, the strategy isn’t aging well – at least from a betting perspective: he’s struggling to cover Spreads after dark.

Brady’s primetime descend can be traced back to his 35th birthday. He was covering late-night spreads at a 59% clip before turning 35. Since then, his primetime performance has plummeted.

Tom Brady FML Chart

Looking at recent performance only, Brady’s a pitiful 2-13 (13%) Against-The-Spread (ATS) after dark since joining the Bucs. It’s true: one of the two games he did cover was vs. these Cowboys; however, it was Opening Night (fresh out of hibernation). Dallas QB Dak Prescott was also injured in that contest. Now he’s back, and Brady hasn’t gotten any younger.

OK, so why didn’t I place a bet on Cowboys spread? It’s because I see a real chance Adrenaline takes over and supersedes the “Sleepy Tom” narrative in a playoff environment.

$FML's Best Bet

For my best bet, I’m pivoting to the Prop market for a Same-Game-Parlay paying nearly 3-to-1 at Draftkings Sportsbook. Mentioned on the Podcast this week and want to reiterate – I expect both QBs to throw an INT:

  • Tom Brady has been picked off 14x in 15 Primetime Games with the Bucs
  • Dak Prescott led the league with 15 INTs despite only playing 12 games

Applying pressure and forcing turnovers is crucial for both sides tonight, and I want action on it.

To boost potential payout, I added a related bet to the ticket: Tom Brady to attempt 40+ passes. This is 13-1 in his last 14 games (excluding Week 18 when he barely played) and should cash again barring an injury.

Parlaying bets is risky, but I love this ticket and wagered accordingly by risking a full unit to win 2.85u

FML Best Bet
FML Promo: $100 Risk Free for 5 Straight Days
CLAIM NOW
Available to all new customers from NJ, NY, CO, IN, IA, IL, LA, VA, WV, PA, MI, MD, KS. 21+ only.
Chiefs

KC

+105

Eagles

PHI

-125

NFL | Sun 02/12, 11:30 PM

Free Bets & Offers


Virginia: Bet $1, Get $200 Guaranteed
New customers only. Make a qualifying deposit (min $10), place bets to deposit value, once they are settled, matched amount in Bet Credits available to use. Bet Credits risk excluded from returns. T&Cs apply. VA Only. 21+.
CLAIM NOW
Virginia: Bet $20, Win $200 in Free Bets
Promo Code: GET100. New users in VA. 21+.
CLAIM NOW
Bet $5 & Get $200 Instantly in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
$1,000 in Bonus Bets on any Sport in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
State Selector
Virginia
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2023 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.4 (1)