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$FML's +285 Best Bet: Cowboys @ Buccaneers - 1/16

$FML is back with a +285 Best Bet SGP. You read that right, Best Bet SGP - check out his masterpiece below!

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Before I reveal my best bet… here’s why I lean Cowboys -2.5 but didn’t wager:

Tom Brady’s bedtime is 9PM sharp.

Everybody knows it, because he revealed the routine in his book.

With that said… Unlike fine wine, the strategy isn’t aging well – at least from a betting perspective: he’s struggling to cover Spreads after dark.

Brady’s primetime descend can be traced back to his 35th birthday. He was covering late-night spreads at a 59% clip before turning 35. Since then, his primetime performance has plummeted.

Tom Brady FML Chart

Looking at recent performance only, Brady’s a pitiful 2-13 (13%) Against-The-Spread (ATS) after dark since joining the Bucs. It’s true: one of the two games he did cover was vs. these Cowboys; however, it was Opening Night (fresh out of hibernation). Dallas QB Dak Prescott was also injured in that contest. Now he’s back, and Brady hasn’t gotten any younger.

OK, so why didn’t I place a bet on Cowboys spread? It’s because I see a real chance Adrenaline takes over and supersedes the “Sleepy Tom” narrative in a playoff environment.

$FML's Best Bet

For my best bet, I’m pivoting to the Prop market for a Same-Game-Parlay paying nearly 3-to-1 at Draftkings Sportsbook. Mentioned on the Podcast this week and want to reiterate – I expect both QBs to throw an INT:

  • Tom Brady has been picked off 14x in 15 Primetime Games with the Bucs
  • Dak Prescott led the league with 15 INTs despite only playing 12 games

Applying pressure and forcing turnovers is crucial for both sides tonight, and I want action on it.

To boost potential payout, I added a related bet to the ticket: Tom Brady to attempt 40+ passes. This is 13-1 in his last 14 games (excluding Week 18 when he barely played) and should cash again barring an injury.

Parlaying bets is risky, but I love this ticket and wagered accordingly by risking a full unit to win 2.85u

FML Best Bet
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