@MattyChucks' Monday Night Football Pick - 1/2

Matty Chucks | @MattyChucks

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Buffalo Bills (12-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

The Buffalo Bills (12-3) head to Cincinnati to face the Bengals (11-4) in what is set up to be one of the most anticipated games of the year. Two of the top teams in the AFC clashing on a Monday Night. We have two of the best young quarterbacks in the league going head to head. This is the first ever matchup between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.

This game is of heavy importance to both teams as the Bills need to win out to secure the #1 Seed and get the heavily sought after bye week and the Bengals need to win to try and clinch the AFC North. This game is basically set at a pick 'em price and a 1 point spread for good reason. The Bills are on a 6 game winning streak and the Bengals are on a current 7 game win streak.

Let’s dive into this. We have 2 of the top teams in the league who both have good young QB’s, a standout WR, and a great defense. According to DVOA stats the Bills are ranked #1 overall compared to the Bengals #7 overall. The Bills have the 3rd ranked offense and the 4th ranked defense compared to the Bengals 5th ranked offense and 14th ranked defense. The strength of this Bengals offense is actually their rush offense with Mixon at the helm, but the Bills have the 3rd best rush defense in the league. This Bengals team when they play a top rush defense in the league has not fared well. They did beat the Titans team by 4 points in a low scoring affair who have the 2nd best rush defense in the league, but they did lose to the Cowboys, Steelers, and Ravens who have the 4th, 5th, and 6th best rush defenses. The Bills have the 3rd best and when you combine this with the overall talent of this Bills team I am not sure that the Bengals will be able to keep up. They haven’t faced a team that is this complete on the offensive side and defensive side of the ball all season long.

I am going to roll with Josh Allen on the road in a huge game and for them to come out on top and get one step closer to that first round bye week and #1 Seed in the AFC. I think Tyler Bass comes up clutch as well if you are into kicker props. I am on a 29-10 combined NFL + NHL Run and we are going to add to this! Let’s keep crushing 2023! Bring the good vibes!

MattyChucks' Pick



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