I am fresh off a 30/1 Phillies to win the World Series future prediction and they are now in the World Series and ready to close it out. If you bet the 30/1 you can easily hedge that ticket now and hope for the best. Now it is time to make a prediction for the Super Bowl.
MattyChucks' Super Bowl Future: The Best Value on the Board - 10/25
Super Bowl "Bubble"
Don’t look now, but the NFL is already 7 weeks in. A lot has happened and it is time to look at the sample size of games and look at some futures.
The Bills, Chiefs, and Eagles have the best records and have been the most dominant so far. They should be good picks come time for the playoffs, but is there any value on them now? I made my preseason prediction on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, but now that the odds got worse for us, if you missed that train I wouldn’t bet on them now. I have a trend that I love and it goes like this.
Since 1980 the Super Bowl winner had a 4-2 record or better through 6 weeks. This means that through 6 games, the team that won the Super Bowl each year for the last 42 years was 4-2, 5-1, or 6-0. This happened last year too where the Bengals and Rams were both 4-2 through 6 weeks. This year the teams in this Super Bowl “Bubble” are:
- Buffalo Bills
- New York Jets
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Tennessee Titans
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Dallas Cowboys
- New York Giants
- Minnesota Vikings
Where's the Value, Matty?
Now, one way to look at futures is to look at their path to win. I am going to target the NFC because even though I wouldn’t bet on the Chiefs or Bills at this stage, they are the favorites for a reason and the toughest out. If you pick an AFC team they may have to face the Chiefs and the Bills or one of them at least.
The NFC is weak as we know. The path to success there is going to be a lot easier. Also, before I say this…I do want to say that I hate this team with all of my heart. Actually, side not I am a Mets fan and I still made the Phillies my value play for the World Series…this shows there is no bias lol. Anyways, yes the team i hate is the Dallas Cowboys. However, they are ranked 3rd overall in DVOA only behind the Bills and Eagles. This team has the 2nd best defense in the league via DVOA, but the 18th best offense. Here is the kicker though, they have had Cooper Rush starting most games. They got Dak back from injury and he looked good last week. Everyone may say that he looks bad this year, but he played one game vs. the Bucs and everyone forced an opinion. The Cowboys have the 8th best rush offense and 20th best pass offense. Now that Dak is back, that passing offense should improve and they will get better.
Now, we know on advanced analytics the Cowboys are good on paper, they now have their QB back, and to top it off play in the easier conference. I will gladly take the Cowboys as a longshot at +1800 right now. You can find those odds on Draftkings and I think that is great value. Also, if you followed my Chiefs preseason Super Bowl bet you will now have one team for each conference.
You can say they never win and blah blah blah I get it, but I can’t turn down this price and remember - I hate them too.
MattyChucks' Value Future
DALLAS COWBOYS TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL @ +1800