@MattyChucks' Thanksgiving NFL Betting Guide - 11/24

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope you all enjoy some quality time with your family, some good football, and most importantly some winning bets. I, MattyChucks, am here to provide you with a guide to all 3 NFL games.

Make sure to check out the bottom of the article for a list of the biggest promos available for the triple header of football action!

Our first course is the Buffalo Bills (7-3) vs. Detroit Lions (4-6) at 12:30 PM EST. You should still be picking at the charcuterie board right now and getting your first plate of finger foods to hold you over until the big feast. The spread is 9.5 in favor of the Bills. The Lions have the most games played on Thanksgiving Day with 82 games going 37-43-2 record over that span. According to DVOA stats the Bills are the #1 ranked team in the league. They have the 6th best offense and the 3rd best defense. The Lions are ranked 16th best with a #10 offense and #25 defense. The Lions defense has been playing better as of late riding a 3 game win streak, but has a tough task ahead this Thanksgiving with Josh Allen & Co.

As far as player props go, the Bills players would be a good target considering the poor Lions defense. The Lions give up the most fantasy points to QB’s and 6th most fantasy points to wide receivers. They also give up the 2nd most rushing TD’s to QB’s and 4th most rushing TD’s to RB’s. Josh Allen is 2-0 on Thanksgiving Day as well and overall on Thursday games he’s 3-0 with an average margin of victory of 19 points.

The main course is at 4:30 PM and we have a good one. The Dallas Cowboys (7-3) take on the New York Football Giants (7-3) in a divisional clash that will definitely start some fights possibly even bigger than the ones currently going on about politics at the dinner table. This could go down as the Battle of the NFC East or even the Battle for Odell Beckham Jr. As a Giants fan this is an absolute nightmare as most of the other people from New York or New Jersey have that one front running cousin coming to Thanksgiving decked out in all Cowboys gear even though he is from Queens.

The Dallas Cowboys have the 2nd most Thanksgiving Day games played with 54 appearances and a 31-22-1 record. The Cowboys are ranked the #2 team in the league according to DVOA and the Giants are ranked 21st. Dallas has the 2nd best defense according to those analytics and it is the toughest task the Giants will have to face. However, it's a divisional game on a short week and that 10 point spread is always tasty. If you want to target player props the Giants allow the 8th most rushing yards per game to RB’s and the Cowboys allow the 10th most. If the Giants want to stay in this game they are going to have to establish the run game early as well. I am going to stay off this game personally, but I really do think that the Cowboys are a lot better than the Giants, but that 10 point spread is too much to take. If anything I would lean Giants +10.

It is now time for dessert with this 8:20 game between the Patriots and the Vikings. Unfortunately for Kirk Cousins he got handed the primetime game while everyone is stuffed and getting their second and third slices of pie. The Vikings are coming off an embarrassing 40-3 loss to the Cowboys and now have to face the Patriots who just won on a late electric punt return to win 3 straight and are now 6-4 on the season. The most interesting part about this Patriots team is that they are actually ranked the #1 Defensive team according to DVOA. They have the best passing defense in the league. The Vikings are actually ranked 24th overall in DVOA despite their 8-2 record. The Patriots are a sneaky team and could pull off the upset, but the Vikings should come for vengeance after that 40-3 blowout loss last week.

As far as player props go I would target New England’s wide receivers yards as the Vikings allow the 3rd most receiving yards to WR’s this season. The Patriots actually allow the 2nd most touchdowns to tight ends even though they don’t allow a ton of yards. This is a prime time game so be wary of Kirk Cousins, but overall this should be a very close game and very entertaining to cap off this Thanksgiving Night.

To sum it up I think the Bills offense is too much for this Lions team and Josh Allen can run in a TD and really just have his way overall. I don’t want any part of that big spread though. The Cowboys and Giants should be a good divisional grind it out game and I would touch on Pollard having a big game and a TD as well. This is an under for me on the total or a Giants +10 with a late cover. The Vikings and Patriots should also be a low scoring game as I think the Vikings will lean on the run and the Patriots will do the same. It could be a pick your favorite New England WR and bet his yards or a sneaky Vikings TD from Hockenson.

Either way, sit back and enjoy the games and stay tuned for official plays on my twitter and some long shot parlays as well! Make sure to take advantage of those Thanksgiving new user promos as well! I've listed some of the biggest below - share with friends & family or cash in yourself!