Happy Monday! The grind is back and the only thing getting you through the day is the sweet taste of gambling on tonight’s football game. The Patriots (6-6) head into Arizona to take on the Cardinals (4-8). This is a must win for both teams, mainly for the Patriots, but if the Cardinals lose they may be mathematically eliminated. The Patriots however, still have a fighting chance. The 3 wild card spots available are currently taken by the Bengals (9-4), Dolphins (8-5), and the 3rd playoff spot is tied with the Chargers and Jets who are both at 7-6. The Patriots can join their company and be in playoff contention. If they lose, they still have a chance but that window would get significantly smaller.
This Patriots team is known for its defense. They are ranked 12th in DVOA overall and that is due to their defense which is ranked 3rd in the NFL via DVOA. Their offense is ranked 24th and they have had an injury bug this season too. They will be without Jakobi Meyers and most likely Damien Harris tonight. This Patriots team has competed with good teams all year and even defeated 4 teams ranked in the top 20 of the league via DVOA.
Kyler Murray is 1-5 at home this season and 10-18-1 at home in his career. The only win this season was on a short week vs. New Orleans with Andy Dalton at QB who has the worst primetime record ever. This team is ranked 30th overall in DVOA with a 29th ranked offense and 24th ranked defense. This team has also had a bit of an injury bug, but they also haven’t shown signs of a great football team either. The Cardinals will be without TE Zach Ertz. This Cardinals team also hasn’t beaten a top 20 DVOA ranked team all year and when they play good teams they get smoked. They lost by 23 to the Chiefs and by 28 to the 49ers. They have played one good team well all year and that was the Eagles where they lost by 3 early on in the season.
The Cardinals allow the most receiving yards to Tight Ends and also allow the most TD’s to Tight Ends as well. The Patriots don’t give up a ton of yards to TE’s, but they do give up the same amount of TD’s. The Cardinals not having Ertz in the red zone will be a massive blow and a big help for the Patriots. On the other end, Hunter Henry has been getting more comfortable and should be in for a big game.
I know New England hasn’t looked the best, but they do look better than the Cardinals. The Patriots also NEED to win this game to keep realistic playoff hopes alive. I will take the Patriots to find a way to win and control the tempo of this game. Give me the Patriots ML -125 on MGM with a lean on the under for the full game.
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