Guys, I am going to be honest.
I slept like a baby last night and I am still recovering from this weekend. However, the Giants are 2-0 and no one can take that away from me. The Giants are hosting their division rivals from Dallas in this Monday Night Showdown. The game is basically a pick 'em and the total is set at 39. We are seeing some money on this under 39 and honestly these prime time games have been low scoring and horrible to watch.
Let's take a look at these primetime games.
Week 1:
Week 2:
Week 3:
This brings us to an average of 36.7 points per game on primetime. If you take away the fluke fumble for a touchdown at the end of the Browns vs. Steelers game, it brings the average to a clean 36 points per game. The average margin of victory is also 13.6 points per game. We have had blowouts and low scoring games through 3 weeks here. Honestly this game might have the best chance of a nail biter down the stretch out of any prime time game this season.
The Giants have been involved in 2 close games so far this season. They won on a missed FG vs. Tennessee and beat the Panthers with a late field goal to win by 3 points. On the other end the Cowboys lost 19-3 in week 1 where they lost Dak Prescott, but then rallied behind Cooper Rush to beat the Bengals 20-17.
The Cowboys are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. the Giants. This has been through multiple coaching staffs and completely different rosters, but the Cowboys have had their way with New York nonetheless. This is the first time that the Giants are facing them with a winning record since before those last 10 games.
The Cowboys have better DVOA numbers than the Giants through 2 weeks. The Cowboys are the 14th best team according to DVOA, while the Giants come in at 20th. The Giants basically only have good numbers with their run game due to Saquon Barkley. This Cowboys defense is really solid. They have a decent rush defense, but a very good secondary and pass defense. This makes me love Saquon in this spot as they know they have to get him going to have a chance here.
The Cowboys on the other hand have great rushing offense and poor passing offense due to playing the Bucs and Bengals in the first 2 weeks who have great defenses. Cooper Rush utilized Tony Pollard a lot with 4 catches on 7 targets for 55 yards in week 2 and I think he will be a prime focus again with Rush in the pocket.
Pollard should get going with an increase in touches as well as they should look to keep the tandem going with Zeke to not over work one of them. Barkley has averaged 4.5 receptions through 2 weeks and I think this is a prime spot for him to get a lot of work in the short passing game.
This game makes me lean to the under because that is how these primetime games have been going and also I think that both teams will run the ball in bunches and play a short passing game.
I will be taking Tony Pollard over 2.5 receptions (-110) on MGM and Saquon Barkley over 3.5 receptions (-105) on BetMGM as well.
