On Saturday, the 22nd of January we get an AFC divisional round matchup of the Titans and Bengals. The Bengals are fresh off a 26-19 win over the Raiders, and Titans are coming off a bye week. The Titans are well rested and just so happen to be getting back, just in time, arguably the best RB in the league. Derrick Henry will be back for his first game since Halloween. This is no easy matchup for King Henry as the Bengal’s have allowed the 5th fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season, but we must consider that Derrick is 9th in the league in rushing yards despite missing 9 games this season. Derrick without question will play a tremendous role in Saturday’s matchup. Henry will obviously get a ton of attention in the betting markets, deservedly so, but I'd like to take my prop in a different direction due to some mystery in his workload and subpar value.
As far as my prop, I am a sucker for TD props and you’ll see me bet many of them, but I think I’ve found too good of a spot to resist. It is in one of my favorite markets, the longest completion. I love this prop because it can cash in one play and it’s quite a rush when the QB tosses a bomb.
Joe Burrow has a plethora of weapons in every direction he looks and draws a plus matchup in a playoff game, where the game script may favor him throwing often. Joe has hit this prop in 10 out of 17 games this season, good for 59%. The Titans’ secondary has battled injuries throughout the season leaving them thin with talent and the numbers represent that. Of their top 5 most targeted DBs, 3 of them have allowed a 100+ passer rating. As far as opposing QBs hitting this number, they are 8/17 this season however two of the misses were at 38 yards. I’d prefer the hit rate to be 50% or better but when you focus on the QBs they’ve faced, I find some comfort. They’ve faced Trevor Lawrence x2, Carson Wentz x2, Houston QBS x2, as well as Zach Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Big Ben, Mac Jones, and Trevor Siemian. With the combination of Joe’s arm talent and the weapons surrounding him, I love this prop.
You can grab it at -114 at BetMGM!
