The Green Bay Packers (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) are staring a 3-5 start right in the face, as they visit perhaps the best team in football, the Buffalo Bills (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS). You’ve heard the stat plenty this week- Aaron Rodgers has never been a double-digit underdog- until now. If you’ve read my column the past few weeks (first of all, thank you) and if you have been tailing my picks, you’ve done very well betting against the Packers with me. I wrote two weeks ago the Jets plus the points, and last week the Commanders plus the points were good plays fading this very flawed Packers squad. Both teams not only covered, but won straight up. However the biggest flaw, the main reason why I’ve been fading the Packers, is not as big of a factor tomorrow in Buffalo.
Green Bay is dreadful against the run, they’ve allowed 140 rush yards per game at nearly 5 yards per carry. That is not something the pass-happy Bills are designed to exploit, as they rank near the bottom of the league in success rate when it comes to running the football, while their best runner is also their quarterback and likely the league’s Most Valuable Player, come February. Running Allen is a big part of their offense , but something preferably saved for bigger games, tougher opponents , not non-conference games where the team is double-digit favorites. While the Packers can certainly be run on, they’ve actually held up reasonably well against the pass, allowing just 6.4 yards per attempt (tied for 10th best in the NFL).
We get a good matchup , we get 11 points, and a Hall of Fame quarterback in addition to a team that is playing to basically save their season from going off of the rails, as the NFC North is quickly getting away from them. Even if the Packers are down 17 late, the backdoor cover remains open with Rodgers and a capable passing game. This is too many points for a game where the lookahead line was 8.5. We’ve made some money betting against the Packers, let’s go the other way and grab the points