@NotTheeWillHill's Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Pick - 11/6

Will Hill is back with a spread pick for Sunday's matchup between Matt Ryan's Colts and (probably) Mac Jones' Patriots in the NFL.

The Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) head to Foxboro to take on their old nemesis, the New England Patriots (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS). For years, we grew up watching these teams play every year it seemed like in what was the marquee game of the week, if not year, during the regular season. Many years we’d also witness a rematch deep in January, as Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady was a staple of playoff football for well over a decade. Well, Peyton Manning is in the Hall of Fame, and Tom Brady is in perhaps his final season, leaving this game as more of an afterthought on Sunday afternoon. But does that mean we can’t make money off of it?

I watched every play of the Patriots win last week against the Jets (because I had a bet on the game, and ONLY because I had a bet on the game, yikes ). I also, like many of us, watched every play of their previous game on Monday Night Football against the Bears. Regardless of what happens tomorrow, I am here to tell you, the Patriots are not six points better than just about anyone. They  did defeat the Jets last week, and covered the spread. But watching that game, and looking at the stat sheet are not sights to behold by any means. They averaged well under 4 yards per play, with quarterback Mac Jones throwing for under 200 yards on 35 attempts, continuing an unimpressive sophomore season where he has 3 touchdowns and 7 interceptions (not including one last week that was returned for a touchdown, but negated by a roughing the passer). The week before they closed as 9 points favorites against the Bears, but lost by nearly 3 touchdowns.

Their opponent, the Colts, will be without Jonathan Taylor, but Taylor has only found the end zone once this year and gained a pedestrian 452 yards rushing about halfway through the season. The one thing the Colts do really well, and why I expect a close game, is they stop the run. They allow just 4.0 yards per carry, meaning this lackluster passing game for the Patriots will be forced to throw . We saw a mobile quarterback, Justin Fields, give fits to this Pats team just two weeks ago, and could see more of the same Sunday as Sam Ehlinger is also someone who makes plays with his legs. Expect a tight game tomorrow, those six points look like an awful lot.